Word of mouth has traveled fast on “Project Hail Mary,” spreading like wildfire. I called it “populist entertainment,” and that is truly what it is.
An incredible $53M second weekend awaits “Hail Mary,” representing just a 34% drop—unbelievable numbers. It’ll be at $150M+ domestic by Sunday evening, and if those worldwide numbers were strong, it could have easily hit $650–700M by the end of its run. However, I don’t think that will occur; it’s probably more in the $500M+ range.
Many are comparing it to Nolan’s “Oppenheimer,” which fell 46% in week two ($46.7M), and “Dune: Part Two,” which dropped 44% ($46.2M). That 34% decline is nearly a record for a non-franchise film, with only “Avatar” having a lower drop back in 2009.
Of course, Amazon/MGM want a ‘Hail Mary’ sequel (terrible idea), even though the film has a satisfying and completist ending that doesn’t at all warrant a continuation. Hollywood be Hollywooding.