UPDATE: Quite incredibly, Supergirl‘s numbers have only gotten worse, and it’s now expected to earn just $38M this weekend after a $10M Saturday. What can I say? Speechless. I predict James Gunn will probably disappear from social media and stop posting—or at least I hope so.
Meanwhile, “Michael” has become the highest-grossing biopic of all time, earning over $977M at the global box office and surpassing “Oppenheimer”. It could reach the $1 billion mark within the next week or two, as it is currently performing exceptionally well in Japan.
EARLIER: “Toy Story 5” should have a decent 55% drop this weekend, easily staying in the top spot at the box office. It took $21M on Friday and is now estimated to earn $72M in its second weekend, pushing it past $300M domestically.
The bigger story this weekend is, of course, “Supergirl,” which grossed $10M on Friday, in addition to around $8M from Wednesday/Thursday previews. A $38M domestic opening weekend is now projected. The budget was $186M.
The film sits at 57% on Rotten Tomatoes, 78% with audiences, a B- CinemaScore, and just a 52% definite recommend rating on PostTrak. That projected $38M opening would be lower than both “The Marvels” and “Morbius.” In the UK, its numbers are on the same level as “Madame Web” and “The New Mutants.”
“Obsession” will finish third this weekend with around $10M and will reach $235M domestically and $370M worldwide by late Sunday. In fourth place is the other major new release, Paramount’s “Jackass: Best and Last,” which made $3.7M across 2,855 locations on Thursday and Friday and is tracking for an $8.4M opening weekend. That’s a disappointment for Paramount, as the previous film, “Jackass Forever,” released in February 2022, opened to $22M.
The budget for “Jackass: Best and Last” was only $10M, and audience scores have been strong — an A- CinemaScore and an 85% Rotten Tomatoes audience score — so the film may still have good legs. Regardless, I think Paramount’s marketing was very weak, which must have contributed to the film opening 70% lower than the previous instalment.
It’s becoming clearer by the day that Steven Spielberg’s “Disclosure Day” will not turn a profit. The original sci-fi film is expected to decline another 60% this weekend and still won’t reach the $100M domestic milestone, with its North American total projected to stand at $93M by Sunday. Worldwide, it has grossed just over $193M. Produced on a reported $115M budget, the film would need roughly $300M worldwide to break even, according to industry estimates cited by the trades.
Spielberg’s return to summer blockbuster filmmaking was not expected to underperform to this extent. His last unequivocal box office hit was 2018’s “Ready Player One,” which earned $607M worldwide. It certainly doesn’t help “Disclosure Day” received mixed reactions from audiences — word-of-mouth driven legs was not going to happen for this film.
James Gray is now speaking about what’s next. He’s given extensive updates on where many of his other projects stand. The news is promising for at least one of them.