The Oscar nominations are on Thursday. Let’s zero in on the big category: Best Picture.
What 10 films will be nominated? Since my last predictions on December 17, a lot has changed — the PGA and DGA have muddied presumptions. The six main locks in the category are “One Battle After Another,” “Sinners,” “Hamnet,” “Marty Supreme,” “Frankenstein,” and “Sentimental Value.”
What the PGA also confirmed is that there might not be enough support for “Avatar: Fire and Ash” and “Wicked: For Good” to repeat the Oscar magic of their predecessors. Both are now long shots to be recognized by the Academy come Thursday morning.
What about the remaining four spots? Can surprise PGA nominees “F1” and “Weapons” get in? How about “Train Dreams”? The little movie that could, backed by a streaming giant — will it overcome expectations and sneak into the final ten?
Watch out for “Train Dreams,” a film that, after premiering at Sundance, came out of nowhere this fall, seducing festival audiences and critics alike with its emotionally resonant, Malickian beats. There’s certainly a ton of passion for this film. I previously wrote that all “Train Dreams” needed was a PGA nomination and it would be locked for Best Picture — that has now happened.
When it comes to “F1” and “Weapons,” I would bet on the latter to nab a nomination. Zach Cregger’s film has vocal supporters and is the kind of surprise commercial and critical hit that is built for baity narrative engineering. No matter the genre, “Weapons” should have never been discounted in the Best Picture race — a non-IP sensation that has defied the odds and, via box-office success and strong reviews, turned into a major Oscar acting contender for Amy Madigan’s supporting turn.
Despite its PGA nomination, “F1” still feels like unlikely. The film’s appeal appears to be largely technical and experiential — a feat of immersive racing filmmaking rather than a passion-driven narrative — which has historically made it vulnerable in preferential-ballot races. Unlike “Train Dreams” or “Weapons,” “F1” lacks a visible groundswell of critical enthusiasm or an awards-friendly storytelling hook that voters can easily rally around, and it hasn’t translated its box-office success into meaningful above-the-line momentum.
Experts also seem to be torn between two international films: Iran’s “It Was Just An Accident” and Brazil’s “The Secret Agent.” Will none, one, or both of these titles get in?
Palme d’Or winner “It Was Just An Accident” was snubbed by the PGA and DGA, which surprised many — particularly the former. It was a consensus-driven pick for a Best Picture Oscar nomination, but now many are wondering if it’ll make the cut. Given how today’s Academy is filled with international voters — not to mention Iran’s continued relevance in world news — Panahi’s film could still get nominated, but it has surprisingly lost awards momentum in recent weeks.
Meanwhile, Kleber Mendonça Filho’s “The Secret Agent” has passionate international support, especially in Europe, and has swayed many U.S.-based voters. It’s come to the point where a Mendonça Filho directing nomination is not out of the question. Wagner Moura could also be recognized in Best Actor. My gut tells me “The Secret Agent” nabs a best picture nod come the morning of January 22.
Of course, none of the films I’ve mentioned that are fighting for one of the last few remaining spots stand a chance at winning the top prize. If anything, it’s now down to four films: “One Battle After Another,” “Sinners,” “Hamnet,” and “Marty Supreme.” Delving deeper into the stakes, it’s quite clear that “One Battle After Another” will be the film to beat come the evening of March 15, 2026.
Here are the Gold Derby experts’ final predictions.
