‘Project Hail Mary’ is Already 2026’s First Oscar Contender?

A few months ago, Deadline’s Justin Kroll teased about a potential major 2026 Oscar contender. His X post can be seen above:

I know we are in the middle of this award season but looking ahead, a certain film coming out in the first half of 2026 has started screening around town for execs and reps and the early word is it’s not just in the mix but will be a top contender by years end. What could it be?

Kroll has now confirmed on the My Mom’s Basement podcast that the film he hinted at was Project Hail Mary. Since that tweet, he says he’s heard the word “masterpiece” (cringe) uttered multiple times from a handful of people who have seen it. Kroll adds that he rarely hears the “M” word from his sources, which is why Project Hail Mary deserves attention.

Back in June, I wrote “Early 3-Hour Cut of ‘Project Hail Mary’ Stuns: Could 2025 Push Be Next?” The film was drawing early comparisons to high-minded, emotionally resonant science fiction like “Arrival” and “Interstellar” — “the kind of sci-fi that plays just as well with awards voters as it does with general audiences.”

Unlike most films this far from release — which tend to still be deep in post-production and shown in rough form during tests — “Project Hail Mary” was said to look nearly finished. Visual effects appeared close to final. That polish had led to speculation that a strategic shift to 2025 — perhaps the holiday season — might be in the cards for Oscar contention. However, Amazon/MGM seems to have kept the film’s March 20, 2026 release date — no doubt in part because the film has already locked up all of the IMAX screens for that date and the weeks that follow.

Regardless, there have only been a handful of movies released between January and April which have gone on to earn best picture nominations, the most famous example is Jonathan Demme’s “The Silence of the Lambs,” released in February 1991, which went on to win the big five categories the following year: Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, and Adapted Screenplay.

Some of the more recent examples of nominated February/March released films: “Black Panther,” “Dune: Part Two,” “Everything Everywhere All At Once,” “Get Out,” and “The Grand Budapest Hotel.”

According to Variety, the Ryan Gosling–led “Project Hail Mary” cost north of $150M to produce. That’s a massive bet for Amazon MGM. However, it’s not an irrational one. There’s been a steady buzz building around “Project Hail Mary,” which is based on Andy Weir’s bestselling novel and stars Gosling as a lone astronaut tasked with saving humanity. A recently released trailer only amplified the buzz, with clear comparisons to “The Martian” — not just in premise, but in tone and overall feel.

That connection isn’t accidental. Drew Goddard, who earned an Oscar nomination for adapting Weir’s “The Martian,” penned the screenplay here as well. And behind the camera, Phil Lord and Chris Miller bring a track record that speaks for itself, especially considering their success working with Sony on ambitious, crowd-pleasing projects.

The film has been in development since early 2020, when Weir sold the rights to MGM for a reported $3M — a deal that looks smarter by the year. Amazon MGM is now positioning “Project Hail Mary” as a major theatrical event.