This is the fifth instalment in our evolving series of 2022 Oscar predictions. We’ve already tackled the Best Picture, Best Actor, Best Actress, and Best International Film categories. Today, it’s Best Director.
The Best Director category this year is a wily one in this weak year for quality filmmaking. So much so that some are predicting foreign-language filmmakers Joachim Trier (“The Worst Person in the World”) or Pedro Almodovar (“Parallel Mothers”) possibly sneaking into the top five nominees.
As it stands, Jane Campion is set to win her first Best Director statuette for “The Power of the Dog.” She was nominated for “The Piano” back when Spielberg’s “Schindler’s List” triumphed with seven wins, including Picture and Director. The critics will be behind her, and I’d be shocked if “The Power of the Dog” doesn’t win the New York Film Critics Circle top prize, ditto Los Angeles.
I imagine that if Kenneth Branagh (“Belfast”) sneaks in to snatch Best Director from Campion, a revolt would occur. This scenario is not an improbability; it is real and it is frightening. Former Academy president was even quoted at Telluride as saying that “Belfast” was one of the best movies he’s ever seen. Yikes.
Denis Villeneuve is almost guaranteed his second nom just solely for the ambition and scope he brought to his “Dune.” Even voters who disliked the film might vote for him out of sheer admiration for what he’s accomplished. The more-than-decent box-office helps a lot.
A narrative is starting to take shape in regards to “King Richard” helmer Reinaldo Marcus Green becoming the first Afro-Latino to ever get nominated in the category. His film is a sure-fire Best Picture contender and there’s no reason to believe he won’t get into the directing category, even if “King Richard” is a film absolutely powered by its acting more than its direction.
That leaves us with the fifth and final slot. If “Licorice Pizza” turns out to be a critically-acclaimed film, then it’s Paul Thomas Anderson's spot to lose. The genre elements of “Nightmare Alley” might turn off some voters, but Guillermo del Toro is so well loved that he might grab that elusive fifth spot.
Or, as mentioned above, Almodovar and Trier sneak in.
Frontrunners
Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog)
Kenneth Branagh (Belfast)
Denis Villeneuve (Dune)
Reinaldo Marcus Green (King Richard)
Joel Coen (The Tragedy of Macbeth)
Contenders
Joachim Trier (The Worst Person in the World)
Pedro Almodovar (Parallel Mothers)
Pablo Larrain (Spencer)
Sian Heder (CODA)
Maggie Gyllenhaal (The Lost Daughter)
Asghar Farhadi (A Hero)
Outsiders
Julia Ducournau (Titane)
Rebecca Hall (Passing)
Joe Wright (Cyrano)
John M Chu (In the Heights)
Ridley Scott (The Last Duel)
Not Yet Seen
Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza)
Guillermo del Toro (Nightmare Alley)
Steven Spielberg (West Side Story)
Adam McKay (Don’t Look Up)
Ridley Scott (House of Gucci)
Edward Berger seems to have settled on what comes next. His Lance Armstrong biopic, starring Austin Butler, is now holding casting calls, with production eyed for January.