‘The Odyssey’ Box Office Tracking Is Wildly Unpredictable, Currently in $80M+ Opening Range

The latest tracking for Christopher Nolan’s “The Odyssey,” via Deadline, is inconclusive. There’s no firm grasp on how much this film will actually make on its opening weekend.

The “wild” opening range right now is between $80M–$100M. Here’s Deadline explaining why it’s hard to predict its opening despite all the news about IMAX presales selling out everywhere:

Why such a wide swath forecast despite selling out 70MM Imax screens a year in advance, and PLFs most recently? Nobody knows how high these Nolan movies will be in their opening weekend.

Take, for example, “Oppenheimer,” Nolan’s last film, which just a few weeks before its opening was tracking for $40M–$50M, only to be boosted by the ‘Barbenheimer’ craze and rave reviews, and open with $82M in its first weekend.

Some still wonder if the Barbenheimer effect of the marketplace had anything to do with that. This time Nolan has the only major studio wide tentpole on its opening weekend. In addition, the great advance large format ticket sales [for The Odyssey] skew heavily to Nolan’s cinephile base

“The Odyssey,” which has been reported to have a $250M budget, will inevitably be clouded by the online controversy around Nolan’s casting decisions, spearheaded by Elon Musk calling Nolan an “anti-white racist” (lol) for casting Lupita Nyong’o as Helen of Troy. However, does the online world actually translate to the real world of box office interest? That’s the real question. There’s reason to doubt.

“The Odyssey” still has some weeks before release, and whatever number you want will see predicted remains speculative at best. I doubt Musk alone can weaken this movie. Rather, what will make or break this film is whether it’s any good. As with all Nolan releases, quality is what matters most, which usually translates into strong legs in the ensuing weekends. If the film gets strong reviews, this will be a successful film.

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