Amid the total weekend domination of “Backrooms” ($90M) and “Obsession” ($30M), there’s the little-reported freefall of “The Mandalorian and Grogu,” which is eyeing a $23M second weekend. That’s a 72% drop.
It’s over for this film, which will finish well below franchise expectations domestically. That $165M budget had many figuring the break-even point would be around $400M, maybe a little more, but now I’m wondering if it’ll even hit $300M by the end of its run.
It’s hard to call a movie that opened last weekend to the tune of $80M a “bomb,” but with that 72% drop and below-average audience scores, this one could very well lose $100M. A front-loaded Star Wars movie that didn’t even open particularly big last weekend — at least not by their standards — is about to bomb.
This is further proof of the broader decline of the Star Wars brand under Disney. Audience rejection has evolved beyond anger into indifference, which, quite frankly, is a more serious problem.
This is yet another sign that established franchises no longer dominate theatrical culture automatically, especially when competing against original genre films that connect strongly with younger audiences. Two horror movies overtaking a new Star Wars release would have seemed unthinkable a decade ago.
A key moment for me came back in 2024, when George Lucas spoke to a packed audience at Cannes. He spent much of the discussion talking about ‘Star Wars,’ defending the prequel trilogy, and lamenting how Disney never used his ideas after he sold Lucasfilm to them in 2012 for $4 billion. Needless to say, he was not thrilled with the direction Disney was taking his former franchise, and he hinted that he might be the only one who truly knows how to make these films.
There’s been zero indication that Disney is willing to bring Lucas back into the creative fold for future Star Wars films, not even as a consultant, but if I were them, I’d seriously consider it. Just ask him. You’d win back a lot of fans who have drifted away. He has always been the mastermind behind the ideas and knows exactly what the diehards want. If Lucas approved, they would approve.