Sean Penn has won two Oscars, and after his recent BAFTA and SAG wins, he might get his third statuette for his performance in “One Battle After Another.” It would be well merited: Penn gives a performance so loony, hilarious, and terrifying that I’m having a hard time imagining Academy voters won’t take the bait.
Yet, despite the BAFTA and SAG boost, the Oscar isn’t necessarily in the bag for Penn—he faces tough competition from Stellan Skarsgård, whose performance in “Sentimental Value” has earned raves since the film debuted at Cannes in May, and could get a boost from the Academy’s international branch of voters.
Portraying Gustav, a once-famous director who offers his estranged daughter a role in his comeback film, Skarsgård plays the father in dryly comic fashion and is a total scene-stealer. Unlike Penn, Skarsgård has never won or even been nominated for an Oscar, despite an illustrious 50-year acting career that includes five memorable Lars von Trier movies.
If Penn had never won an Oscar, this would be no contest, and he’d be locked in to win—but having already won two statuettes makes this race too close to call, especially with Skarsgård being such a damn likable guy throughout this awards season.
Benicio del Toro, Penn’s co-star, absolutely deserves a place in the final five for his playful work as Sensei (“a few small beers”). He’s in the film for less than 15 minutes, but every time he shows up, it’s memorable. For a moment there, critics’ groups tried to boost him in the race as he practically swept every supporting prize: New York, Austin, Boston, Chicago, Georgia, San Francisco, Toronto, Washington, NBR, NSFC, and OFCS.
Alas, Del Toro got an Oscar nomination out of this critical boost, but Penn’s role is more upfront, flashier, and more important to the central themes of “One Battle After Another.” That said, I can see Del Toro stealing some votes from Penn, jeopardizing the latter’s chances of winning. If Penn loses, it might be due to that.
The other two nominees stand on the outside looking in, especially Jacob Elordi (“Frankenstein”), who is already a winner by being recognized for his work here. The dark horse of the category might actually be Delroy Lindo (“Sinners”), an acting veteran highly respected by his peers, humiliated at BAFTA, who is Oscar-nominated for the first time—narratives matter, and Lindo definitely has that going for him.
In all likelihood, the consensus says it’ll be Penn vs. Skarsgård battling it out for the Oscar. Who actually wins is a toss-up, but Penn is my bet—his performance is too notable, too commanding to ignore, the kind that lingers in memory for years to come.