Firstly, a note on tracking for Antoine Fuqua’s “Michael,” which is absolutely killing it in ticket pre-sales. Internal tracking is hinting at an $80M–$90M opening weekend. I don’t even think mediocre reviews will matter much when it comes to this movie, and globally? Michael Jackson was a more popular artist internationally, so it’s no surprise its global tally will likely be even greater.
Now, do audiences know that “Michael” is just part one? Last year, we learned that Fuqua reportedly had a “Michael” cut running nearly four hours long, which Lionsgate now plans to split into two parts — “Michael” (part one) is around 120 minutes.
The catch? The sequel only happens if “Michael” becomes a hit with audiences when it opens in April. If it lands big, which looks like it’ll be the case, then Lionsgate will move forward. If not, all that extra footage turns out to be a waste of money, and the Jackson estate, which has been covering the costs, eats the losses.
Something to keep an eye on, and with “Super Mario Galaxy” aiming for a $150M domestic opening next weekend, the box office is looking fairly healthy at the moment. A promising start to 2026.
Now, there’s one new wide release to track this weekend, and that’s Warner Bros’ “They Will Kill You,” which grossed $1M in Thursday previews. The Zazie Beetz-led thriller has a budget of $20M, and is co-financed between New Line and the Skydance-owned Nocturna — it’s expected to earn $9M this weekend.
Reviews are at 51 on Metacritic, and 72% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes, which is a few digits below its toughest genre competition this weekend, “Ready or Not 2”‘s 75%. Not the best scores to lure a wide audience, and I haven’t seen the film just yet, but odds are it won’t make much of a dent commercially.
However, the big news continues to be Amazon/MGM’s “Project Hail Mary,” currently at $110M domestic, and after a $6.1M Thursday, the hope is for a small 40% drop this weekend, which might very well happen — I’m going with a box-office-topping $45M weekend for the film in its second weekend.
Then there’s “Hoppers,” Pixar’s latest film, a decent film — nothing more than that — now entering its third weekend, and earning $1M on Friday. Its domestic cume is now at $248M worldwide. Not a triumph by any means when compared to past Pixar successes; hell, not even close to besting “Elemental,” which had a nearly $500M global tally.
Hill, coming off the miserable reviews for this year's “Outcome,” now has yet another film destined for a long delay. This time, it's “Cut Off,” his third directorial effort, which was set to hit theaters this July