It looks as though Amazon/MGM might have its first genuine blockbuster—and it’s not technically even IP, but rather based on a popular book.
“Project Hail Mary” made $12M in previews on Thursday, including early showings; that’s actually more than what “Oppenheimer” earned. Although the trades are saying $65–70M, that looks like lowballing to me. I’m pretty bullish on this one, believing it’ll surpass $80M this weekend.
According to Puck, the Ryan Gosling–led sci-fi epic has a $200M budget. That figure doesn’t surprise me in the slightest. This film has a ton of effects, but at that level, you’re looking at a break-even point around $500M worldwide. A massive bet for Amazon MGM that might actually pay off—the worldwide tally this weekend might surpass $120M.
It certainly helps that audiences will love “Project Hail Mary,” which I described in my review as “populist entertainment,” and which is based on Andy Weir’s bestselling novel. I’m predicting strong legs for this one—the drop should be under 50% in its second weekend.
Gosling is a lone astronaut tasked with saving humanity—there are clear shades of “The Martian”—also based on a Weir novel—and not just in premise, but in tone and overall feel. More in my review here.
Drew Goddard, who earned an Oscar nomination for adapting Weir’s “The Martian,” penned the screenplay. And behind the camera, Phil Lord and Chris Miller bring a track record that speaks for itself, especially considering their success working with Sony on ambitious, crowd-pleasing projects.
I’ll open up a reaction thread for our readers tomorrow. I thought the film was fun—saccharine at times, overlong, with a sometimes lagging midsection—but overall, a good movie. There’s a visually astonishing set piece in the final stretch that’s worth the price of admission alone.