Oscars 2027: ‘The Odyssey’ Is Still the the Best Picture Frontrunner

Venice, Telluride, Toronto and New York have unveiled their big contenders, and Gold Derby's experts have reshuffled their Best Picture predictions. Just about everything has screened at this point. What's left? Basically "Cliff Booth" and "Dune: Part Three." That's it. Everything else has shown its hand.

So here's where I'm at. Right now, the film to beat at next year's Oscars is… Christopher Nolan's "The Odyssey." Yep, nothing's changed. No other film has surpassed it as the frontrunner.

There aren't many "locks" for a Best Picture nomination; I'm thinking "La Bola Negra" and "Project Hail Mary." Right behind them, but still not locked, are "Obsession," "The Invite," "The Debut," "Wild Horse Nine" and "I Play Rocky." That said, Villeneuve and Chalamet would surely like to have a word with all of them.

Can Nolan go back-to-back after "Oppenheimer"? The only thing working against him is the calendar. It's a summer movie, and it has to hold voters' attention for another five months. "Oppenheimer" pulled that off. I wouldn't bet against him doing it again.

"The Odyssey" sits at #1 because it checks every box the Academy cares about. It's the best-reviewed major studio release of the year and the kind of old-school epic Hollywood no longer makes. It's also a genuine box office event at $1.7 billion and counting, with one of the most sprawling A-list casts in recent history. Voters also now see Nolan as the standard-bearer for big-screen, adult-minded spectacle. Gold Derby has it leading in Picture and Director, with Anne Hathaway out front in Supporting Actress, and it's dominating the craft categories: Cinematography, Costume Design, Casting, you name it. That's what a frontrunner looks like.

That said, the biggest climber of the fall, and it's not close, is "La Bola Negra." Los Javis already shared Best Director at Cannes, then went to Toronto and won the People's Choice Award. Nearly every recent winner of that award has ended up with a Best Picture nomination. Netflix is all in, giving it the longest theatrical run in the streamer's history starting October 16. This is Netflix's horse, and it's a strong one. If anything is going to challenge "The Odyssey" on pure emotion, it's this.

I'm also starting to believe in "Obsession" landing a Best Picture nomination. You've got to love this story. Curry Barker made this thing for about $750,000, and it's now grossed over $400 million worldwide, more than "Sinners." Focus is campaigning hard. It's not winning Best Picture, but a nomination alone would be a massive victory. Horror has always had an uphill climb with the Academy. Then again, "Get Out," "The Substance" and "The Silence of the Lambs" all broke through when the culture was behind them. And the culture is very much behind "Obsession."

Peter Farrelly's "I Play Rocky" is another fall festival contender. It's the movie about a young Stallone fighting to play Rocky Balboa, and it was runner-up for TIFF's People's Choice Award. Its odds have shot up since. Remember, Farrelly already won Best Picture with a TIFF crowd-pleaser: "Green Book." Don't underestimate this one.

What's left to screen? "Dune: Part Three," which opens December 18. Both previous chapters got Best Picture nominations, and a trilogy finale could have "Return of the King" vibes. If Villeneuve and Chalamet stick the landing, this isn't just a nominee. It would become the real threat to "The Odyssey," ahead of even "La Bola Negra."

Then there's "The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth." It's Fincher directing a Tarantino script, with Brad Pitt back in his Oscar-winning role. It skipped every festival and gets a two-week IMAX run starting November 25. This film has been giving mixed signals for a few months now, from puzzling test screenings to reshoots to Fincher exiting Netflix. Still, we have to take any film from the Fincher-Tarantino-Pitt trio seriously, and this is a movie event no cinephile would dare miss.