UPDATE: Speaking of … “Avatar: Fire and Ash” is absolutely killing it at the box office. It earned $24M on Thursday and is looking at a four-day $90M weekend. If the numbers stick, that would represent a drop of only 15% compared to last weekend’s opening.
These numbers are truly unbelievable and, at the same time, exactly what should have been expected from James Cameron’s Pandora-set franchise. The first two films also started off slow and then gained massive momentum in the ensuing weeks.
This is to say, ‘Fire and Ash’ will hit the $600M worldwide mark by late Friday, and now a $2 billion run is not off the table. At this point, unless some type of unforeseen disaster strikes, “Avatar 4” is practically a given to be greenlit. We can probably add “Avatar 5” while we’re at it, and Disney is likely going to want them soon, which means Cameron might not get to make his non-Avatar side projects any time in the near future.
EARLIER: As is the case with every ‘Avatar’ film before it, ‘Fire and Ash’ has legs and could very likely hit $1 billion before the year ends.
The film earned $17M on Tuesday — a tremendous showing — and has so far grossed $120M domestically and $450M worldwide. It will crush $500M by this evening. Never count James Cameron out. He knows what he’s doing.
Furthermore, the trades are projecting a $75M Thursday–Friday haul for ‘Fire and Ash,’ which would represent only a 33% drop. History seems to repeat itself with every “Avatar” instalment: a slow opening followed by massive legs.
Just to compare, “Avatar: The Way of Water” also held strong business in its second weekend, adding $82M for the same four-day holiday span. Worldwide, ‘Way of Water’ crossed $850M by its second full weekend.
Scratch the 50/50. It's more like 70% mixed-to-negative from what I've seen, but it's got a few defenders, which leaves me very curious.