Oscars: Timothée Chalamet’s Performance in ‘Marty Supreme' Is the One to Beat

A big question surrounding this year’s Best Actor race is slowly being answered: Timothée Chalamet, at 29, is the actor to beat for his wonderful performance in “Marty Supreme.” The two-time Oscar nominee now finds himself as the frontrunner.

For a time, most of the “experts” crowning Chalamet as the frontrunner on Gold Derby’s charts hadn’t actually seen “Marty Supreme.” The buzz was built almost entirely around social media reactions. However, the film was screened a handful of times this week, and buzz hasn’t relented. I watched the film two weeks ago, and I can tell you that there is just no scenario where I don’t see Chalamet winning the category. He’s just too damn good in this film.

Of course, I’m currently under embargo and can’t reveal anything about the film itself until December 1, but watch out for “Marty Supreme,” it’s the real deal — filled with great performances, impeccable direction, and the kind of ambition 99% of American films lacked this year.

In October, “Marty Supreme” was shown as a surprise work-in-progress screening at the New York Film Festival — reviews embargoed, cut unfinished — and yet the social media reaction was enough to shift the entire awards conversation overnight. Suddenly, Chalamet’s third nomination feels inevitable, and for the first time this season, he’s not just part of the conversation; he is the conversation.

For weeks, Gold Derby’s Best Actor top five barely moved in terms of who was in it — the same names, shuffled around week to week. Then Leonardo DiCaprio rocketed to the top the moment “One Battle After Another” screened. He will probably be Chalamet’s biggest competition this year. There are currently two things working against DiCaprio: he’s already won an Oscar, and although he shares the most screen time in “One Battle,” the film is very much an ensemble of great performances.

Meanwhile, Dwayne Johnson’s awards hopes seem alive, but barely. “The Smashing Machine” opened to lackluster box office numbers, and those once-glowing Venice notices quickly cooled once the broader press weighed in. Whatever momentum Johnson had going into the fall seems to have evaporated just as quickly. He’s still been on the campaign trail, and Christopher Nolan did give him a boost by calling his work the best performance he’s seen this year. Don’t count him completely out just yet.

In a more balanced world, Ethan Hawke (“Blue Moon”) and Wagner Moura (“The Secret Agent”) would also be in that conversation. Both deliver some of their finest work in smaller, under-seen films that have yet to make the rounds. Whether they can build momentum as the season unfolds remains to be seen, but they deserve to.

If one of them makes it, it’ll be Hawke, who is tremendous — maybe career-best — as he crawls inside Lorenz Hart, the tiny, tormented, alcoholic genius who could write songs like no other and drink like no one should. Sporting a balding comb-over, it’s the kind of casting that shouldn’t work on paper — but it does, gloriously. Hawke shouldn’t work in this role — he’s too rangy, too sunny, too Texan — but he does, magnificently. He makes Hart’s bitterness both pitiful and exhilarating, a drunk’s spiral turned into a cabaret act from hell. In a career marked by strong roles (“First Reformed,” “Before Sunset,” “Training Day”), this might just be the performance of his career.

Jesse Plemons’ name doesn’t seem to want to go away. His work in “Bugonia” is definitely being talked about, but because his acting style is subtle rather than showy, it risks being overshadowed by louder contenders in categories where voters often gravitate toward transformative roles. I still wouldn’t count him out.

The rest of the field feels soft. Michael B. Jordan’s dual performance in “Sinners” could very well squeeze into the final five — his name is still being mentioned by pundits— but Jeremy Allen White’s chances for his turn as Bruce Springsteen in “Deliver Me From Nowhere” seem to be fading away. Maybe George Clooney can sneak into the final five for “Jay Kelly,” which has been winning over older voters at guild screenings. Joel Edgerton’s work in “Train Dreams” is exemplary, but will enough voters be won over by the Malickian narrative?

Of course, it’s still early, voting doesn’t begin until January, and there’s still a lot that can happen between now and then, but right now, all signs point in one direction: Chalamet.