The Best Actress race this year is turning into the Jessie Buckley show. At this point, it’s hard to imagine her losing come Oscar night.
Even folks who don’t care much for “Hamnet” admit that Buckley is great in the film. However, the main reason why I’m so bullish about her Oscar chances? There’s barely any competition up against her.
Who else is there?
The below Gold Derby chart has Cynthia Erivo at #2. Scratch her off. That was before the embargo lifted this afternoon and “Wicked: For Good” received mixed reviews.
In a just world, Rose Byrne would win. After being celebrated with laudatory reviews at Sundance, Byrne’s astonishing work in “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You” is, for my money, the best female acting of the year. Watch the film. She’s incredible in it. If the Oscars were actually about quality of work, rather than campaigning, then Byrne might have a chance to win.
What makes Byrne’s work even more undeniable is just how completely she disappears into the role. She’s a woman under the influence. It’s the kind of performance that doesn’t feel performed at all—raw, lived-in, and startlingly precise. She moves between fury, heartbreak, and deadpan humor with ease. This is towering, career-best work, and in any sane awards year, it wouldn’t just be in contention—it would be the performance to beat.
Then there’s Renate Reinsve, who shines in “Sentimental Value,” and she’ll probably be rewarded with a nomination, but her performance is quasi-supporting. She’s also outshone by her co-star Stellan Skarsgård, who steals the film and is a major contender to win Supporting Actor—unless Sean Penn has something to say about that.
How dour is this year’s Best Actress category? Over on Gold Derby, you can find Margot Robbie’s performance in the ill-received “A Big Bold Beautiful Journey” at #12. Not too far behind her are Emma Mackey (“Ella McKay”), Dakota Johnson (“Materialists”), and Olivia Colman (“The Roses”). Yikes.
Meanwhile, I’ve been banging the drums hard for Jennifer Lawrence to get nominated for her intense work in “Die My Love,” and maybe she will, but the movie she’s in has had a hard time finding fervent supporters.
Emma Stone could sneak into the final five for her work in “Bugonia.” In the film she shaves her head. For Academy voters, that’s called acting. Don’t get me wrong, she’s good in the film, but in any other, more competitive year, we wouldn’t be predicting her for a nom.
Critics seem split on “The Testament of Ann Lee”—there’s a love-it-or-hate-it train when it comes to this one. Its admirers are pushing hard for Amanda Seyfried to garner an Oscar nomination for Best Actress—I highly doubt it. Her role is too thinly written, but she sings! She dances! That might be enough to push her through.
It’s come to the point where Chase Infiniti, who has around 30 minutes of screen time in “One Battle After Another,” could very well be nominated as a lead. Warner Bros. is campaigning her as such. It might actually work out for them. The film is aiming for six acting noms: DiCaprio, Penn, Taylor, Hall, Del Toro, and Infiniti. I don’t believe it’ll get more than four.
So that’s where we’re at when it comes to female acting this year. Jessie Buckley will probably win the Oscar, but all hail Rose Byrne!
Denzel playing a broken ex-cop with nothing to lose, under McQuarrie's direction? We all know Washington loves to attach himself to redemption stories. It's his bread and butter.