Oscar nomination voting commences on January 27th and closes on February 1st. Seven days later, the nominees are announced. We have, more or less, a good idea now of who the contenders are.
The final weeks of the year will be quiet in the industry, with mostly just “Spider-Man: No Way Home” being seen in theatres and, if it doesn’t bomb, “The Matrix Resurrections.” This site will continue operating as per usual, but maybe with less news and reviews being posted.
The Oscars don’t particularly like superhero movies unless a really good one gets released. “Spider-Man: No Way Home” could be just that. I have yet to see it, but what the Oscars do need inserted into the Best Picture lineup is a very popular movie. Maybe the Producers Guild could respond to Spidey and kickstart the momentum.
The reviews are good and the box-office even better.
This is what having ten Best Picture slots was designed to do, get a few popular movies in there for a larger audience to tune in. The expanded ballot happened in 2009 after “The Dark Knight” did not get a Best Picture nomination and this genre of films started creeping into the nominees list. Right now, this year, only “Dune” can qualify as a genre Best Picture contender.
The Producers Guild is set to announce on February 26th. That should give us a good indicator of the Picture nominees. And so, here are my final predictions for the year:
Best Picture
1. West Side Story
2. The Power of the Dog
3. Belfast
4. King Richard
5. Dune
6. Licorice Pizza
7. CODA
8. The Last Duel
9. Nightmare Alley
10. Don’t Look Up
Best Director
1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
2. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
3. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
4. Denis Villeneuve, Dune
5. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
Best Actress
1. Kristen Stewart, Spencer
2. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
3. Jennifer Hudson, Respect
4. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story
5. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Best Actor
1. Will Smith, King Richard
2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
3. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano
4. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
5. Andrew Garfield, tick, tick… Boom!
Supporting Actress
1. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
2. Rita Moreno, West Side Story
3. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
4. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
5. Marlee Matlin, CODA
Supporting Actor
1. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
2. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast
3. J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos
4. Jared Leto, House of Gucci
5. Troy Kotsur, CODA
Adapted Screenplay
1. The Power of the Dog
2. West Side Story
3. CODA
4. Dune
5. The Lost Daughter
Original Screenplay
1. Belfast
2. Licorice Pizza
3. King Richard
4. C’mon C’mon
5. Parallel Mothers
Cinematography
1. The Power of the Dog
2. West Side Story
3. The Tragedy of Macbeth
4. Dune
5. Belfast
I don’t know about you, but I’m kind of looking forward to the “Michael” sequel. Whether Vantoine directs it or John Logan, it doesn’t matter—it’s an inevitable sh*tshow that will result from its making and release.