This is a big week for Oscar predicting. No precursors are greater or more important than the Producers Guild and Screen Actors Guild awards. By the end of the weekend we’ll know where we’re at when it comes to the Best Picture and acting races.
On Saturday, the Producers Guild of America announces its winners and although odds-on favorite “Everything Everywhere All At Once” has the momentum it doesn’t mean that it’s a shoo-in to win. Here are the nominees:
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Banshees of Inisherin
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All At Once
The Fabelmans
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick
The Whale
If EEAAO does end up winning the PGA then I believe we can be more certain that, along with its DGA win last weekend, the Best Picture race will have been wrapped up even before the March 12th Oscar ceremony.
If not EEAAO, then what could possibly win? There’s Martin McDonagh’s “The Banshees of Inisherin,” but Im skeptical given that it didn’t even prevail last weekend on home turf at the BAFTAS. The film is also too vague for Academy tastes, a biblical parable about communication that doesn’t give us any easy answers.
Edward Berger’s “All Quiet on the Western Front” won BAFTA and it thus quickly went up the Gold Derby expert rankings where it’s now positioned in the top five. Too bad it’s not nominated here. The problem is that Netflix was campaigning “Glass Onion” to death this awards season without the realization that their big horse in the race was actually Berger’s WWI epic.
There are still people out there clinging to the idea that “Top Gun: Maverick” can win. I understand the mindset of these people and I was one of them at some point this awards season. However, as much as ‘Maverick’ might have given hope to the industry with its astounding box-office, not to mention its great reviews, I find that there is still a contingent of voters who will never vote for anything Tom Cruise.
Finally, there’s Steven Spielberg’s “The Fabelmans.” The former frontrunner to win from its initial world premiere at TIFF in September all the way to its December release, which is when things went sour for the film. The box-office crashed. Spielberg didn’t even win the DGA. It turns out his film is liked but not incredibly loved by voters.
Will it seriously be an “Everything Everywhere All At Once” win on Saturday night? “All Quiet on the Western Front” might be its biggest competition come Oscar time, but, again, it’s not nominated here. The only thing going against EEAAO is that the token male, over-50 voter might not warm up to the film. Regardless, it has a passionate following.
On Sunday Night, the Screen Actors Guild will give out its prizes in the Lead and Supporting categories. For the Best Actress category, there is no Andrea Riseborough, for obvious reasons.
Cate Blanchett (TÁR)
Viola Davis (The Woman King)
Ana DeArmas (Blonde)
Danielle Deadwyler (Till)
Michelle Yeoh (EEAAO)
By all accounts, it looks like a two-way race between Cate Blanchett (TÁR) and Michelle Yeoh (EEAAO). Yeoh could become the first ever Asian to win the SAG for lead acting. That’s quite the narrative. Blanchett gave an all-timer performance as Lydia Tár — it has become its own monstrous meme online.
Danielle Deadwyler (Till) is actually nominated here and maybe she’ll gather up enough sympathy votes to pull off a shocking upset. Who knows! Viola Davis (The Woman King), also nominated, stands less of a chance. Both actresses might just cancel each other out with the empathetic voting.
My pick is Blanchett, but barely.
In the Best Actor category you have a three-way race between Austin Butler (Elvis), Brendan Fraser (The Whale) and Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin).
Austin Butler (Elvis)
Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Brendan Fraser (The Whale)
Bill Nighy (Living)
Adam Sandler (Hustle)
Brendan Fraser has been a very empathetic figure this awards season. People love him. He could easily win this category, but not everybody seems to be connecting with his movie.
It’s Butler’s SAG to lose. He’s the frontrunner here. Fraser might have the narrative and Farrell the best performance, but Butler has the showier role and it’s a star-in-the-making one as well.
Then we have the Supporting Actress category:
Angela Bassett (Wakanda Forever)
Hong Chau (The Whale)
Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Jamie Lee Curtis (EEAAO)
Stephanie Hsu (EEAAO)
Can Angela Bassett (Wakanda Forever) actually win the award for an MCU performance? That’s what the pundits keep predicting. Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin) riled things up with her BAFTA win last week, but Bassett is well-loved in the industry and a win here would be akin to a lifetime achievement award.
Finally, there’s Supporting Actor:
Paul Dano (The Fabelmans)
Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Barry Koeghan (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Ke Huy Quan (EEAAO)
Eddie Redmayne (The Good Nurse)
Despite losing the BAFTA, Ke Huy Quan (EEAAO) will probably prevail in the Supporting Actor Race. There’s no Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans) among the five nominees, so Quan’s fiercest competition will be the two ‘Banshees’ actors: Barry Keoghan and Brendan Gleeson.
Gleeson and Keoghan might actually cancel each other out and split the votes. Paul Dano stands no chance whatsoever. Eddie Redmayne already won by being nominated.
I just can’t see Quan losing this one.
Edward Berger seems to have settled on what comes next. His Lance Armstrong biopic, starring Austin Butler, is now holding casting calls, with production eyed for January.