How bad is this year’s Best Actress race looking? It’s a wasteland. There just aren’t that many contenders, to the point that Gold Derby’s top 20 includes names like Meryl Streep (“The Devil Wears Prada 2”) and Angelina Jolie (“Couture”).
Just when you thought the 2027 Best Actress race couldn’t get any thinner, today’s news that “A Place in Hell” has been delayed to next year effectively wipes Michelle Williams off the board.
Williams has been sitting comfortably at #3 in Gold Derby’s Expert predictions. With the film now out of this year’s awards corridor, one of the category’s few established contenders disappears overnight.
And that’s the story of this race. It’s actually come to the point where Universal, seeing an opening, is weighing campaigning Anne Hathaway (“The Odyssey”) as lead actress — which she is clearly not.
There’s no obvious bona fide contender just yet in the way we’ve become accustomed to. Julianne Moore leads for “The Debut,” but without the kind of overwhelming consensus usually attached to an eventual Oscar nominee. The film is also only premiering in September. Renate Reinsve remains a challenger for “Fjord” (#2), but if you’ve seen the film, it’s more of a directorial triumph than an acting showcase (Sebastian Stan also has a much meatier role).
With Williams gone, everyone below her slides up a spot, but the biggest beneficiary is undoubtedly Inde Navarrette. At this point, it would be surprising if Navarrette didn’t receive an Oscar nomination.
Why? Because “Obsession” increasingly looks like exactly the kind of story the Academy gravitates toward in an otherwise weak year. Navarrette has been generating exceptional buzz—more than any other actress this year—and she’s carrying a showy lead performance. Quite simply, there aren’t many alternatives with comparable momentum. It might have been a stretch to call her a lock in May, but not anymore.
All I want to know is: when does Navarrette’s Oscar campaign begin? That’ll be fun to watch. She is the absolute standout in “Obsession” — her performance is deranged, hilarious, and terrifying all at once. She wails, grins, and stalks with a level of commitment that deserves recognition.
After Williams’ exit, Navarrette will now sit third in Gold Derby’s Expert rankings, though I expect she’ll effectively move to #2, as I can’t see Reinsve staying that high once “Fjord” is more widely seen.
Sandra Hüller remains a respected contender for “Fatherland,” but the film might be too artsy for the Academy’s tastes, while Mikey Madison (“The Social Reckoning”) is attached to a film that just underwent reshoots, with another round scheduled for August. Trouble brewing?
Beyond that, the odds fall off dramatically. Emily Blunt, Daisy Edgar-Jones, Zendaya, Anne Hathaway, and Angelina Jolie are all attached to films that haven’t generated much momentum.
It’s still only July, and the festivals can always reshape the race. Venice, Telluride, and Toronto have launched countless Oscar campaigns before. However, as things stand today, this Best Actress lineup feels unusually fragile.
In a category desperate for contenders, Navarrette suddenly looks less like an exciting newcomer and more like one of the safest bets in the race.
Takashi Yamazaki isn't wasting any time. "Godzilla Minus Zero" hasn't even opened yet (it arrives November 6), and he's already readying his next move: his first major studio picture, "Grandgear."