Best Picture Race: ‘The Odyssey' Still #1, ‘You Can See Everything' Is a Threat, ‘La Bola Negra' Is a Hot Ticket, and ‘Digger' Refuses to Die

It's been almost a month since I last tackled these rankings, and, well, a lot has changed. That's the funny thing about October. You think you've got the race figured out after the fall festivals and then the movies actually open, and things get reshuffled.

Let's start with the obvious.. "You Can See Everything" is in. I'm not hesitating anymore. It's practically a lock for a Best Picture nomination at this point. The reviews are best-of-the-year, and it's doing real business too, and that double whammy of critical and commercial success is exactly the kind of thing that makes for a lock. The real question now isn't whether it gets nominated. It's whether it can crack the top three. I think it can. I'd actually argue it's already there.

And what a year for A24, by the way. They could walk away with three Best Picture nominees when all is said and done: "You Can See Everything," "The Debut" and "The Invite."

So as it stands, the race looks like this at the top: "The Odyssey," "La Bola Negra," and then "You Can See Everything," with plenty of room to keep climbing. Speaking of "La Bola Negra," it's doing very well in its limited theatrical run. It opened with $277K from just four venues in New York and Los Angeles, for a per-screen average of nearly $70K. That's the second-highest per-screen average ever for a non-English language film, behind only "Parasite.” Weekend two? It expanded to nine theaters for a solid $245K, bringing its cume to $650K. Tons of sellouts nationwide, by the way. It’s a hot ticket.

None of this changes the top spot, by the way. I've been saying "The Odyssey" is the frontrunner since July, and nothing has changed, and no other film has surpassed it. It checks every box. It's the best-reviewed major studio release of the year, grossed $1.7 billion worldwide, and is the kind of old-school epic Hollywood just doesn't make anymore. Can "La Bola Negra" or "You Can See Everything" catch it? Maybe. Polymarket still has Nolan's film at 45%, with the A24 doc climbing to 25%. That said, it's still Nolan's race to lose.

Now, about "Digger." Is it really dead? I'm not so sure anymore. Sean Fennessy over at The Big Picture has Iñárritu's polarizer at #10 in his latest rankings, which means, as things stand, it gets nominated. And look, I somewhat agree with his reasoning. Some corners of the industry plainly loves this movie. The critics were split, sure, but critics aren't the ones voting. And let's not forget that the Academy has taken a real liking to Iñárritu over the years. Hell, even "Bardo," his worst-received film, still managed a cinematography nomination. Voters show up for this guy. I've got it at #15 for now, but I wouldn't bet against it. It's not dead.

And then there's "I Play Rocky." I just can’t see Peter Farrelly's film not getting nominated. This is the crowd-pleaser of the season, it has a prime fall slot that tells you Amazon/MGM is positioning it for a real awards run, and it has Anthony Ippolito, who spent nearly two years preparing to play Stallone and nails it. Amazon even moved the limited release up a week to November 6, ahead of its nationwide expansion on November 20. Voters are going to eat this up. It's #10 on my list for now.

Of course, the elephant in the room is "Dune: Part Three," the biggest film yet to be screened. Villeneuve's last chapter could very well rearrange the top of this list once people finally see it. We just don't really know yet. Unless, that is, you're still clinging to the belief that "Cliff Booth" could do some damage. I'm not totally ruling it out. It isn't completely out of the realm of possibility.

World of Reel Best Picture Rankings

1. "The Odyssey"

2. "La Bola Negra"

3. "You Can See Everything"

4. "Dune: Part Three"

5. "Wild Horse Nine"

6. "Project Hail Mary"

7. "The Debut"

8. "Obsession"

9. "The Invite"

10. "I Play Rocky"

11. "Fjord"

12. "All of a Sudden"

13. "Michael"

14. "Artificial"

15. "Digger"

16. "Elsinore"

17. "Club Kid"

18. "Behemoth!"

19. "Cliff Booth"

20. "Wildwood"

The top three feel solid. After that? It's anybody's game, and ‘Dune’ is about to throw a grenade into the whole thing. Thoughts?