‘Moana’ Projected to Lose $125M, According to Deadline and Variety — Probably Much More

Here are the trades carrying Disney’s water.

With Disney’s live-action “Moana” off to a disastrous start, opening to just $43M domestically against a reported $250M production budget and an estimated $145M marketing spend, Deadline and Variety report that if its theatrical run follows a trajectory similar to “Snow White” (2025), Disney could face losses of roughly $100–125M after accounting for box office revenue and ancillary income.

It’s quite a coincidence that both trades are reporting the exact same loss figure, especially when the underlying numbers don’t appear to add up. It raises questions about whether Disney is influencing the narrative behind the scenes.

I really think that “$100-$125 million loss” figure is understated. That number seems far too optimistic given the film’s massive budget and soft opening weekend, not to mention its poor overseas performance. My best guess is that, at a minimum, we’re looking at $200M in losses—maybe more.

Think about it: the 2.5× rule is a useful benchmark for estimating a film’s break-even point. For “Moana,” that would put the break-even threshold at around $625M worldwide. Given that it earned only $95M globally on its opening weekend and is now projected to finish with roughly $250M-$300M worldwide, it’s safe to say the theatrical losses will be significantly higher than $100M.

It certainly doesn’t help that Dwayne Johnson, who stars as Maui in the film, received a $20M upfront salary for the remake. However, he will likely not collect any additional backend compensation, as his contract reportedly stipulates that “Moana” must first break even before he is eligible for a percentage of the profits.

Of course, post-theatrical revenue streams—such as home entertainment, television licensing, streaming value, and merchandise—will likely reduce the film’s reported losses. But we’re talking purely about its theatrical performance here. That raises a good question: is the “Moana” brand beginning to fade?

Releasing a live-action remake so soon after “Moana 2”—which grossed more than $1 billion worldwide despite mixed reviews—likely created audience fatigue. Disney would have been better off focusing on developing animated sequels instead of revisiting the original story in live action.

Around this time last year, many wondered whether, after the whole “Snow White” debacle, Disney would be forced to rethink its plans for future live-action adaptations such as “Tangled.” The project was initially put on hold following “Snow White,” but resumed pre-production a few months later and is now filming for a 2028 release. Maybe, in the end, that wasn’t such a good idea.