Oscars: Can ‘Michael’ Get a Best Picture Nomination? How About ‘Obsession’?

With half the year done, I guess we can talk, albeit very speculatively, about the Best Picture Oscar contenders that have been screened so far. There aren’t many.

Variety’s Clayton Davis does just that in his latest piece, which is being ridiculed in some corners of the internet—unfairly, might I add—for predicting that “Michael” has a Best Picture nomination. Have these people not heard of “Bohemian Rhapsody,” which also had mixed reviews and high audience scores? Both films also went over $900M worldwide at the box office, with “Michael” potentially hitting the billion-dollar mark by next weekend. “Bohemian Rhapsody” ended up getting a Best Picture nomination and won four Oscars, including Best Actor—watch out for a potential Jaafar Jackson nomination.

“Michael” has been a major talking point this year and will continue to be discussed as awards season rolls on, and that’s despite the 38% Rotten Tomatoes score. This film has to be treated as awards-viable, even amid uncertainty about reception; industry buzz, star power, and campaign strength could outweigh critical response.

What other films this century received mediocre reviews and still somehow landed a Best Picture nomination? Not many.

• “Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close” — 44% on Rotten Tomatoes

• “Don’t Look Up” — 56%

• “Bohemian Rhapsody” — 60%

• “The Reader” — 63%

• “Chocolat” — 63%

• “Vice” — 64%

• “The Blind Side” — 66%

Michael’s 38% feels like a stretch, but it really comes down to how strong this year’s slate of films ends up being. Six months in, based on what’s been released so far, a “Michael” nomination is still technically still on the table.

So far, of the films we’ve seen in 2026, “Project Hail Mary” stands out above the rest. With strong reviews and box office performance, it’ll be competitive in ATL categories like Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, and Best Adapted Screenplay. There’s just no way this film isn’t present in the conversation.

Christopher Nolan’s “The Odyssey” hasn’t screened for much of the press, but that hasn’t stopped Oscar pundits from declaring it a major contender. I say: wait for the reviews—you just never know what could happen, especially given how many question marks still surround this film. Given Nolan’s reputation within the industry, “The Odyssey” would probably need Tenet-like reviews to miss the best picture lineup.

Alongside all these titles, the rest of the field includes strong challengers. I can see Palme d’Or winner “Fjord” getting nominated and maybe, if Netflix mounts a considerably effective campaign, the old-school classicism of “La Bola Negra,” another Cannes prize winner, is a viable option. Jordan Firstman’s “Club Kid,” acquired by A24, is another possibility if it manages to gain traction outside the acclaim it received on the croisette.

There are two dark horses at the moment. One is Olivia Wilde’s “The Invite,” but I see that film more as a screenplay nominee. The other is Curry Barker’s “Obsession,” which has a shot—it’s not like the Academy has ignored horror in recent years. It’s got a strong narrative behind it, and maybe Focus can pull off some campaign magic and make it happen.

As for what’s coming in the fall, keep an eye out for Joel Coen’s “Jack of Spades,” Martin McDonagh’s “Wild Horse Nine,” Alejandro G. Iñárritu’s “Digger,” David Fincher’s “Cliff Booth,” Denis Villeneuve’s “Dune: Part Three,” Tony Gilroy’s “Behemoth!,” Ben Affleck’s “Animals,” Jesse Eisenberg’s “The Debut,” Aaron Sorkin’s “The Social Reckoning,” Peter Farrelly’s “I Play Rocky,” Tom McCarthy’s “The Statement,” Fernando Meirelles’ “Here Comes the Flood,” Andrew Haigh’s “A Long Winter,” Mike Leigh’s “Tender Loving Care,” Werner Herzog’s “Bucking Fastard,” Chloé Domont’s “A Place in Hell,” Robert Eggers’ “Werwulf,” and Brad Bird’s “Ray Gunn.”

Below are Davis’ very early Oscar 2027 predictions. As is the case every year, I expect half of the top ten to not make the final lineup, with plenty of surprises to emerge. It’s all in good fun.