Right now, tracking for Disney and Lucasfilm’s “The Mandalorian & Grogu” is not looking so hot — more recently, a domestic opening weekend debut of $71M+ was making the rounds, but I’m hearing it might come in much lower than that.
Projections are now moving downward, despite an upturn in marketing efforts over the past few weeks. Currently, $65M is the number being floated from Friday-Sunday, which would easily make it the lowest opening of the Disney “Star Wars” era — a record currently held by “Solo: A Star Wars Story” at $84M.
Of course, this doesn’t even take reviews into account, especially since the film has yet to be screened. There are surely plenty of moviegoers on the fence about “The Mandalorian & Grogu” who might only be persuaded to buy a ticket if word of mouth turns out to be positive.
“The Mandalorian and Grogu,” set to release on May 22, is the first Star Wars movie since 2019—an IP Disney is eager to revive in theaters, especially after the mixed reception of the last trilogy. Still, was turning one of their Disney+ series into a full-blown theatrical feature really the best way to do it?