A recent Variety piece about James Cameron’s “Avatar: Fire and Ash” claimed that despite grossing over $1.4 billion at the box office, the 2025 sequel had yet to make a profit for Disney given its extravagant budget and marketing costs.
The film has earned $402M domestically, whereas the last one, ‘The Way of Water,’ earned $688M. That’s a noticeable dip. The worldwide tally sits at $1.43 billion, compared with its predecessor’s astounding $2.2 billion.
Can a fourth instalment be greenlit for what Cameron has called “the worst business case in movie history”?
Turns out, it’s highly possible. Cameron attended the Saturn Awards on Monday and was asked about “Avatar 4.” Although he says it hasn’t been confirmed yet, he added that it is “very likely” a sequel will happen, noting that “audience feedback” will be key to unlocking the story for this fourth instalment.
That’s all we got from him, but the part about audience feedback is promising. The main criticism ‘Fire and Ash’ received was that it was too similar to its predecessor, ‘The Way of Water,’ with comparable story beats and a climax that felt too familiar.
Disney had initially committed to two more Avatar installments, slated for 2029 and 2031, but the studio doesn’t have any contractual obligation to proceed with them.
If ‘Avatar 4’ comes to pass in 2029, it would only be four years after ‘Fire and Ash,’ which may not allow enough time for the franchise to breathe and for audiences to rebuild excitement. It certainly doesn’t help that Cameron would turn 75 by then, and with the clock ticking, he might not get to pursue some of his other passion projects.