Can Timothée Chalamet Actually Win His First Oscar?

Oscar voting has officially started today. A big question surrounding this year’s Best Actor race revolves around whether Timothée Chalamet, at 3 and seemingly the frontrunner, can pull off a win for his performance in “Marty Supreme.”

For months, Chalamet has topped the odds over at Gold Derby, with Wagner Moura (“The Secret Agent”) holding steady in second place, followed by Leonardo DiCaprio (“One Battle After Another”), Michael B. Jordan (“Sinners”), and finally Ethan Hawke (“Blue Moon”).

In a more balanced world, Ethan Hawke would also be in the conversation — “Blue Moon” is his finest work, but it’s a smaller, under-seen film that might not have been seen by enough Academy voters to warrant a win. I’d love to be proven wrong here, though.

That said, right now, all signs point in one direction: Chalamet. He just turned 30 and has become the youngest actor to earn three Oscar nominations since the legendary Marlon Brando. If Chalamet wins the category, he’d become the second youngest to do so — just a few months shy of Adrien Brody’s win for “The Pianist.”

Any other actor in Chalamet’s position would be practically a cinch to win the Oscar, a near lock. But there are some who think he might lose. Why? They claim his outlandish campaigning these last few months has hurt his chances at winning an Oscar for what, let’s be clear, is a great performance in “Marty Supreme.”

Chalamet appears to march to the beat of his own drum. He’s focused entirely on his own path, seemingly unconcerned with studio expectations, or the broader responsibility of leading a film. He’s breaking the unwritten Hollywood rules by saying whatever he wants, touting his own work, and even admitting he really wants that Oscar.

Awards campaigning has a history of working best when there’s a clear purpose and it’s done in a politically correct fashion. I know — boring, right? Chalamet is changing the rules, and it’s still up in the air whether this total upheaval of the old, tried-and-true formula will result in an Oscar. I hope it does.

If voters can look past the bombast, they’ll appreciate that Chalamet crafted a genuinely impressive performance as Marty Hauser. In any case, we’ll get a better indication of whether he’s a frontrunner on Sunday, when the biggest and most important precursor — the Screen Actors Guild Awards — will be presented.