My absolute favorite precursor has been announced, and compared to PGA and DGA, this is way more fun to decipher, with a handful of surprises.
There’s no more reliable Oscar precursor for Best Picture than the Producers Guild of America, known as the Darryl F. Zanuck Award. The PGA, which is around the same size as the Academy — both have around 10,000 members — and which shares the preferential voting system, has matched with the Oscar Best Picture winner 12 out of the last 15 years.
This morning, the 10 nominees for the 37th annual Producers Guild of America were announced, and given past history, these could very well be our Best Picture nominees:
“Bugonia”
“F1”
“Frankenstein”
“Hamnet”
“Marty Supreme”
“One Battle After Another”
“Sentimental Value”
“Sinners”
“Train Dreams”
“Weapons”
Where to begin? I’ll just get the predictable titles out of the way. We all expected “One Battle After Another,” “Sinners,” “Marty Supreme,” “Frankenstein,” “Hamnet,” and “Sentimental Value” to be nominated.
That said, holy moly, the surprises! All are much welcomed. Joseph Kosinski’s “F1” just got a major boost, and I can definitely see it getting Best Picture nominated. It makes sense why the PGA would vote for this film, which is original, got great reviews, and nabbed over $600M — I’m 100% behind this immensely entertaining racing movie getting honored by Oscar.
“Weapons”! I kept saying don’t discount this film in the Best Picture race, a non-IP sensation that has defied the odds, and via box-office success and great reviews, turned into a major Oscar acting contender for Amy Madigan’s supporting turn. I’m so happy for Zach Cregger, and the entire cast and crew, for this well-earned PGA nod.
Another “surprise,” but maybe one that was expected by some, is Clint Bentley’s “Train Dreams,” an acclaimed Malick-like tone poem which has been gaining traction these last few weeks, and has a very passionate set of supporters — not to mention one of the more effectively emotional endings of any movie this year.
Yorgos Lanthimos’ “Bugonia” made the cut as well. I hadn’t been sold on its Oscar chances, but it looks like it could sneak in now. Let me be clear: my previous skepticism isn’t the same as disliking it. I found the film largely good — a slow burn that tests your patience at times, punctuated by a handful of shocking moments, and capped with a knockout ending. I just never thought its grimy, off-kilter vibes would sit well with the Academy.
The only foreign-language film nominated was “Sentimental Value.” The most notable PGA snubs are Jafar Panahi’s “It Was Just An Accident” and Kleber Mendonça Filho’s “The Secret Agent.” Many believed that, despite mixed reviews, “Avatar: Fire and Ash” and “Wicked: For Good” would sneak in there, but nope — they were ignored. Now, given that the modern-day Academy voting body is more international, I expect, at the very least, Panahi’s film to sneak in come Oscar nominations morning.