It’s July. The temperature’s hot, the release calendar is dry, and yet Gold Derby’s 30 or so “experts” officially unveiled its early predictions for Best Picture at the 2026 Oscars. You’d be forgiven for rolling your eyes—awards season is still half a year away—but a closer look at these early odds reveals what might already be shaping the conversation.
Putting “Sinners” at #1 feels like both an acknowledgment of Coogler’s acclaimed hit, and totally jumping the gun. Gold Derby has a habit of locking in early on the prestige pick that should win—before the real race even begins. Last year, “Blitz” sat near the top for months. Then it landed with a thud.
Then again, it does make perfect sense that “Sinners” sits at #1—it checks every box the Academy seems desperate to fill these days. It’s a rare blend of commercial success and critical acclaim, and tackles weighty, timely themes rooted in racial injustice and historical trauma—exactly the kind of topical resonance AMPAS has gravitated toward in its post-Moonlight era.
Hot on Sinners’ heels, Joachim Trier’s “Sentimental Value.” The Norwegian filmmaker’s Cannes entry has become an early favorite thanks to great reviews, intimate subject matter, and what many see as a career-best turn from Renate Reinsve. It’s the kind of internationally-produced, quiet, and emotional drama that could make waves with Oscar voters.
Then there’s Yorgos Lanthimos’ “Bugonia,” his high-concept sci-fi satire starring Emma Stone. The film, a remake of a 2003 Korean cult classic, is said to be bold, bizarre, and, according to unverified rumors, close to 3 hours long. After “Poor Things,” Lanthimos is officially in the Academy’s good graces. Then again, I wouldn’t be surprised if it alienates voters the way “Kinds of Kindness” did.
Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle After Another” is also getting early mentions. It’s Anderson’s first true swing at genre action/comedy. Will AMPAS embrace PTA leaning more commercial? That depends on execution, rollout, and most importantly, reviews.
There are two sequels in the Top 10 (“Wicked: For Good” and “Avatar: Fire and Ash”) both of which are coming off their last instalments having been Best Picture nominated.
Don’t be so surprised that Jafar Panahi’s “It Was Just an Accident” cracked the early top ten. Fresh off a Palme d’Or win and arriving at a time when Iran is dominating global headlines, the film carries both artistic weight and political urgency. Panahi’s ongoing defiance of Iran’s filmmaking ban only adds to the narrative. Iran film will, for obvious reasons, not submit the for the International Feature category, but if momentum holds, it could land in the Best Picture final 10.
Of course, these early odds are speculative at best, with only three of the ten films having been screened. With that said, Gold Derby often becomes an echo chamber, experts picking what they think the Academy should vote for, and this year’s early list reflects a more international, risk-tolerant Academy, which checks out.
For now, the front-runners are auteurs, indies, and intellectual dramas. The Academy, post-COVID, post-Netflix-glut, still seems to want a Best Picture that feels important, but importance doesn’t always win. Timing does.
