There’s a growing sense of fatalism among the people running America’s movie theaters. I just came across a new industry survey that paints a sobering picture: over half of exhibition executives—those directly tied to the moviegoing business—don’t believe the traditional theater model will survive the next two decades.
Let that sink in. We’re not talking about critics or streaming evangelists sounding the death knell. This is coming straight from the exhibition side itself. These are the folks booking screens, selling popcorn, and living off ticket sales. And yet, nearly 55% of them think the model has fewer than 20 years left. Some were even more pessimistic, clocking the death watch closer to five or ten years.
The data came out of a survey by industry analyst Stephen Follows, in collaboration with Screendollars. They reached out to nearly 250 execs across the American film sector—people working in exhibition, production, distribution, sales, and television—to take the pulse of where things stand post-COVID.
It’s not just theater owners sounding the alarm. Sales and distribution heads were even more cynical about the future—over 60% of them also think the clock is ticking, fast. Interestingly, among all the groups surveyed, it’s the exhibitors themselves who seem slightly more optimistic than their peers in adjacent corners of the industry.
Follows doesn’t frame the results as all doom and gloom. He leaves the door open to the idea that the model might evolve—maybe the venues stay open, the business shifts, and what we call “going to the movies” just ends up looking different. But the throughline is clear: change is inevitable.
One thing that stood out—nearly 90% of exhibitors say they still haven’t bounced back to pre-2020 revenue levels. COVID wrecked the old rhythms of the business, and it turns out they’re not easily rebuilt. On top of that, 81% of the respondents said they still want a theatrical exclusivity window of at least 45 days before a movie hits home platforms. Not surprising, especially given that 77% also believe day-and-date streaming releases are killing the model.
The theatrical business, once a rock-solid foundation of the entertainment industry, is now clinging to relevance in a rapidly shifting landscape. Whether it gets redefined or left behind, the next couple of decades will tell the story.