I’m sure some of you have already seen the trades buzzing about today’s tracking numbers for “Superman.” The truth? Nobody knows a damn thing. THR claims industry opinion is “sharply divided,” and that’s putting it nicely.
Some think this thing could limp out of the gate with a $90M–$120M domestic opening, while others are tossing out a much rosier $150M–$175M. That’s not tracking—that’s chaos. It’s also a sign that nobody really knows what to expect. And honestly, I’m not interested in playing the guessing game, because here’s the reality: this movie is going to live or die based on reviews.
Why? Because the DC brand is on life support. Trust is gone. The average moviegoer might not yet be convinced this reboot will be any different from the last wave of disasters. You’ve got a string of flops behind you—“The Flash,” “Black Adam,” “Shazam: Fury of the Gods”—and each one chipped away at whatever credibility the studio had left.
“Superman” is James Gunn’s shot to reset everything, but it’s also carrying the full weight of a rebooted universe. Audiences are more skeptical than ever, and the general vibe is: prove it first. They’re not just walking into a Superman movie out of brand loyalty anymore. That’s gone. And with a stacked summer release calendar, people have options. A lot of them.
And yes, presales are okay. Not terrible, not great. Internally, there’s some disappointment—even with Fandango’s site crashing the day tickets went live, which sounds better than it actually is. If the numbers stay where they are, it may not even crack $100M opening weekend.
Of course, all of that can change fast if reviews come in hot. If critics rally around it, if there’s a wave of “Gunn did it again” or “DC finally gets it right,” that’s when you’ll see a shift. That’s when the casuals who were burned by the last few entries start buying in. That’s when “Superman” goes from just another cape movie to an event.
Audiences want a reason to care again, and critics are going to be the ones to frame that narrative. They don’t always move the needle, especially with superhero films, but in this case, they might be the only thing standing between a high success and underperformance. If early word is flat or mixed, this thing could sink fast. But if it’s great? Then we’re looking at something big.