The 31st annual Screen Actors Guild Awards, happened tonight, and that meant one final push for the Oscars before next Sunday’s ceremony. SAG winners were voted on by the over 130,000 SAG-AFTRA members. This is a pretty major precursor to determine the frontrunners for the Oscar acting categories.
With that said, Oscar predictions just got a little muddier. What we perceived as frontrunners in their respective categories might not actually be winning the Oscar after all? It’s all up in the air in what’s turning out to be one of the most unpredictable awards seasons in recent memory.
First off, “Conclave” won Best Ensemble. It’s now back to being win-competitive in terms of the Best Picture Oscar. I’m still betting on “Anora” to prevail come next Sunday, but at this point anything can happen. A truly wild finish to precursor season.
It should also be noted that past winners of the SAG Best Ensemble award include “Black Panther,” “The Help,” “American Hustle,” “Hidden Figures,” “The Trial of the Chicago 7,” and “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri,” all of which did not win the Best Picture Oscar.
Another SAG upset. Timothee Chalamet (“A Complete Unknown”) won Best Actor. The “experts” said it was going to be Adrien Brody (“The Brutalist”). They were wrong. Chalamet’s stock has been rising considerably, for well over two months now, as more and more voters have been catching up with ‘Complete Unknown’; 18 of the last 20 SAG best actor winners have gone on to win the Oscar.
Demi Moore won Best Actress for “The Substance,” and that’s quite the accomplishment for a horror movie performance. Mikey Madison (“Anora”) was tipped to win, but Moore, after 47 years in the SAG union, finally won her award. The Oscar race considerably tightened up tonight — it’s going to be a photo finish between Moore and Madison. Don’t discount Fernanda Torres, she‘a still the dark horse in this category.
Meanwhile, Zoe Saldaña has now won the Golden Globe, Critics Choice, BAFTA and SAG Award for her Supporting performance in “Emilia Perez.” Not even Karla Sofía Gascón could derail Saldaña. Supporting actress is a weak category this year and Saldaña‘s fiercest competition for Oscar gold will probably come from Ariana Grande (“Wicked”).
In the most predictable outcome of the evening, Kieran Culkin (“A Real Pain”) won the Award for Best Supporting Actor. If there ever was a sure-fire lock to win an Oscar this year then it’s Culkin — he’s won the Golden Globe, BAFTA and the Critics Choice Awards as well as most of the top critics groups. His name is already being carved on the Oscar statuette.
Of course, we all know the rule: take these reactions with a grain of salt rather than treating them as gospel. Still, I will say that the film tested like gangbusters earlier this year, and Lionsgate clearly has confidence.