Here’s Variety with their “10 Big Movies We Expect to See at Cannes or Venice 2026.” Nothing new here, except for their intel suggesting Asghar Farhadi’s “Parallel Tales” and James Gray’s “Paper Tiger” are expected to be released during the first half of 2026. This automatically means they’re setting their sights on Cannes.
“Paper Tiger,” starring Adam Driver, Scarlett Johansson, and Miles Teller, could mark a return to Cannes for Gray, who is beloved in France and has premiered five films there, including “Armageddon Time,” “The Immigrant,” “Two Lovers,” “We Own the Night,” and “The Yards.” He was also on the Cannes jury in 2009.
Meanwhile, Farhadi’s film has an all-French ensemble, including Isabelle Huppert and Catherine Deneuve, alongside Virginie Efira and Vincent Cassel. The Iranian filmmaker has presented four films on the Croisette: “The Past,” “The Salesman,” “Everybody Knows,” and “A Hero.”
This is to say, if you’ve read this column for a while, you know the drill: I spitball Cannes every month from January to April, updating the latest intel and trying to figure out what will be in competition, vying for the Palme d’Or.
It’s still too early for intel. January is when Cannes chief Thierry Frémaux visits the big studios in Los Angeles to lure them into bringing some of their major titles to Cannes in May — and this year, he’ll be lobbying for two particular films: Steven Spielberg’s “Disclosure Day” and Alejandro González Iñárritu’s “Digger.”
Other than that, we can safely expect Ruben Östlund’s “The Entertainment System Is Down,” which would give the Swedish filmmaker a shot at a third straight Palme d’Or, after winning for “The Square” and “Triangle of Sadness.” Earlier this year, Östlund even told Variety that his upcoming film, set on a commercial flight, “will cause the biggest walkout” in the history of Cannes.
As for Terrence Malick, this week Deadline reported he’s still editing “The Way of the Wind” (lol), so who knows when we’ll ever get to see that one — although I’m sure his producers are politely starting to tell him enough is enough, just release the damn thing.
Cannes may still be five months out, but that’s hardly a reason to hold back on the guessing. In fact, the early theorizing is part of the fun: tracking production timelines, reading between the lines of distribution plans, etc. Here’s a rough blueprint of what to expect:
CONTENDERS
Bitter Christmas (Pedro Almodovar)
The Entertainment System is Down (Ruben Östlund)
Fjord (Cristi Mungiu)
Jack of Spades (Joel Coen)
Paper Tiger (James Gray)
The Way of the Wind (Terrence Malick)
Minotaur (Andrey Zvyagintsev)
All of a Sudden (Ryusuke Hamaguchi)
Her Private Hell (Nicolas Winding Refn)
Parallel Tales (Asghar Farhadi)
Coward (Lukas Dhont)
Hope (Na Hong-jin)
1949 (Pawel Pawlikowski)
Out of this World (Albert Serra)
Sheep in the Box (Hirokazu Kore-eda)
It Will Happen Tonight (Nanni Moretti)
Après (Kirill Serebrenikko)
Butterfly Jam (Kantemir Balagov)
The Loved One (Rodrigo Sorogoyen)
Wake of Umbra (Carlos Reygadas)
The Basics of Philosophy (Paul Schrader)
Untitled (Mike Leigh)
On Land and Sea (Hlynur Palmason)
Mimesis (Kaouther Ben Hania)
Burning Rainbow Farm (Justin Kurzel)
Gentle Monster (Marie Kreutzer)
The Long Winter (Andrew Haigh)
Let Love In (Felix Van Groeningen)
Double Freedom (Lisandro Alonso)
Switzerland (Anton Corbijn)
The Man I Love (Ira Sachs)
The Costume (Corneliu Porumboiu)
The Diary of a Chambermaid (Radu Jude)
Bucking Fastards (Werner Herzog)
At The Middle of Life (Hong Sang-soo)
Call Me Queen (Emily Catef)
At the Sea (Kornél Mundruczó)
Thomas le Fort (Angela Schanelec)
The Dream Adventure (Valeska Grisebach)
Every year, anywhere between four and six competition films hail from France. For 2026, I’ve identified 15 potential titles, of which only a handful will be selected to compete for the Palme d’Or.
The Unknown (Arthur Harari)
If Love Should Die (Mia Hansen-Løve)
Red Rocks (Bruno Dumont)
Full Phil (Quentin Dupieux)
The Things That Hurt (Arnaud Desplechin)
Moulin (Laszlo Nemes)
A Good Little Soldier (Stephane Brizé)
Dao (Alain Gomis)
Dumas: Black Devil (Ladj Ly)
Roma Elastico (Bertrand Mandico)
Histoires De La Nuit (Lea Mysius)
De Gaulle: Part One (Antonin Baudry)
I’ll Forget Your Name (Yann Gonzalez)