We aren’t even done with this current movie year, and Deadline’s Justin Kroll is already teasing us about a major 2026 Oscar contender. His X post can be seen above:
I know we are in the middle of this award season but looking ahead, a certain film coming out in the first half of 2026 has started screening around town for execs and reps and the early word is it’s not just in the mix but will be a top contender by years end. What could it be?
So, what could this film be? What comes out during the first half of 2026? This is fun. Here are all of the titles being released from January to May that people are speculating could be the film Kroll is referring to:
Project Hail Mary (Chris Miller/Phil Lord)
The Dog Stars (Ridley Scott)
Wuthering Heights (Emerald Fennell)
The Drama (Kristoffer Borgli)
The Bride (Maggie Gyllenhaal)
Mother Mary (David Lowery)
Michael (Antoine Fuqua)
28 Years Later: The Bone Temple (Nia DaCosta)
Curiously, all of these films — with the exception of “Michael” — have already test screened. Most have received mixed responses, with only notable standouts: “Project Hail Mary,” “The Drama,” and “28 Years Later: The Bone Temple.” And while “The Drama” and ‘The Bone Temple’ seem unlikely to enter the “Oscar movie” conversation, that leaves one clear frontrunner: “Project Hail Mary.”
Back in June, I wrote “Early 3-Hour Cut of ‘Project Hail Mary’ Stuns: Could 2025 Push Be Next?” The film was drawing early comparisons to high-minded, emotionally resonant science fiction like “Arrival” and “Interstellar” — “the kind of sci-fi that plays just as well with awards voters as it does with general audiences.”
Unlike most films this far from release — which tend to still be deep in post-production and shown in rough form during tests — “Project Hail Mary” was said to look nearly finished. Visual effects appeared close to final. That polish had led to speculation that a strategic shift to 2025 — perhaps the holiday season — might be in the cards. However, Amazon/MGM seems to have kept the film’s March 20, 2026 release date — no doubt in part because the film has already locked up all of the IMAX screens for that date and the weeks that follow.
Regardless, there have only been a handful of movies released between January and April which have gone on to earn best picture nominations, the most famous example is Jonathan Demme’s “The Silence of the Lambs,” released in February 1991, which went on to win the big five categories the following year: Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, and Adapted Screenplay.
Some of the more recent examples of nominated February/March released films: “Black Panther,” “Dune: Part Two,” “Everything Everywhere All At Once,” “Get Out,” and “The Grand Budapest Hotel.”