How strange is it to see a Dwayne Johnson-led film opening to such low numbers? Sure, many screens this weekend are dominated by Taylor Swift, but that hardly explains why “The Smashing Machine” earned just $800K in Thursday previews. This one looks like a a box office bomb.
Early estimates from Deadline hinted at a $20M opening, but current trends suggest that number might actually be what it makes by the end of its domestic run. We’re now looking at a single-digits opening ($8M) against a reported $50–60M budget, which would be a tough pill for both Johnson and A24 to swallow.
For Johnson, whose track record has made him one of the most reliable draws in Hollywood, this is a major dent. Meanwhile, A24, never a studio known for blockbuster muscle, is having a particularly rough stretch. “Materialists” remains their lone bona fide hit this year, leaving ‘Smashing Machine’ to carry a weight it likely wasn’t built to bear
Up next for A24 is the most expensive movie in their short history, the $90M “Marty Supreme,” which has been slotted for a prime Christmas Day release. That one has the benefit of having Timothee Chalamet as its lead, but will need strong reviews if it wants to make its money back.