It’s August, which means Gold Derby has opened up its Oscar predicting area for pundits and readers. It’s always interesting to see how the race is shaping up this early into the season.
These are fairly accurate rankings — you can see them below this article — and probably the same ten nominees that I would predict as of today, but maybe not in the same order. Obviously, with Venice/Telluride/TIFF, predictions will drastically shapeshift in the coming weeks and months.
So, the first Best Picture results are in and A24’s “Sing Sing” is ahead of the pack at #1. Will it stay there? The prison drama quietly premiered at TIFF last year and has had a slow theatrical rollout this summer. I wasn’t a fan of the film, but reviews have been good (84 on Metacritic). You would never guess “Sing Sing” was currently in its fifth week of release given the relative lack of buzz.
“Sing Sing,” which stars Colman Domingo and Clarence Maclin, tells the story of an incarcerated theater troupe that puts on a play as part of a rehabilitation program. Greg Kwedar (“Jockey”) directed “Sing Sing” and co-wrote it with Clint Bentley.
Outside of pundit circles, nobody is really talking about “Sing Sing.” It’s also barely made a dent at the box-office, having only grossed $821,862 so far in its run.
The commercial and critical success of “Dune: Part Two” has it barely trailing “Sing Sing” at #2 on the Gold Derby charts. As far as I’m concerned, Denis Villeneuve’s sci-fi epic is the actual frontrunner. It’s very hard to believe that it isn’t #1. Then again, one look at other pundits’ predictions, including Next Best Picture and Oscar Expert, and “Sing Sing” is also at the top. Go Figure.
I’m not quite sure if I’d have Steve McQueen’s “Blitz” (#3) as high as the GD experts — I am basing my own assessment on the lack of festival buzz it’s been getting. I can see it cracking the final 10 nominees, but just can’t imagine it being a major contender. We should note that the film is set to premiere at the London BFI Film Festival in October, and that no Best Picture nominee has ever had its world premiere at that festival.
The rest of Gold Derby’s top 10 is capped off with “Anora,” “Emilia Perez,” “Joker: Folie a Deux,” “Nickel Boys,” “Gladiator II” and “The Piano Lesson.”
