This has been one strange awards season. Unlike other years, I’m struggling to believe that we have a frontrunner (“Anora”). In fact, there might not even be one this year.
Firstly, the 10 spots for best picture are almost all locked. Maybe the final one is still a question mark, but I currently have as our nominees “Anora,” “The Brutalist,” “Conclave,” “Emilia Perez,” “Dune: Part II,” “Sing Sing,” “A Real Pain,” “A Complete Unknown,” “Wicked,” and “Nickel Boys”
Which of these titles has the best shot at winning? None of them are a slam dunk like last year’s “Oppenheimer,” which was the frontrunner to win months before the Oscar ceremony even happened. Recently, THR’s Seth Abramovitch theorized that “Wicked” could defy expectations and take home the big prize. He called it the “resurgence of commercial juggernaut cinema” at the Oscars.
The truth is that the best prognosticator for Oscar isn’t one single pundit, or media outlet. I tend to visit the Gold Derby charts, which tallies up Oscar “experts” predictions and comes up with an aggregated list fit for “consensus.” This year, “Anora” has been holding steady at #1 for close to four consecutive months. Not too far behind are “The Brutalist” (#2) and “Conclave” (#3).
Of course, it’s easy to just tally up lists and announce this or that film as “our frontrunner.” Recently, Matt Neglia’s Next Best Picture went against the grain, and seemed to be all in on “Conclave” as the frontrunner. Neglia tells me that “Conclave” is “where everyone [including his writers] are landing currently.”
Neglia goes on to add that “Conclave” is a film that “appeals broadly,” and will score many 2-3 votes on ballots. Much like Awards Daily’s Sasha Stone, he’s zeroing in on the “preferential ballot,” which has now become crucial to winning an Oscar.
The best picture category employs ranked-choice voting (also known as preferential voting). Voters order the nominees by preference; if one movie comes away with more than 50% of the first-place votes in the first round, that's the winner. A polarizing film cannot win with the preferential ballot in place.
Meanwhile, Stone believes “Anora” has the best odds of winning, and her reasoning might be as simple as it just being the best film out of the ten nominees. Sometimes, the quality of a film should just speak for itself.
Anora is still the “frontrunner,” if such a thing exists this year. It would win because of pure love. It isn’t that everyone is going to like this movie. It might be a bit rough for some. But those who love it REALLY love it and that kind of passion matters in a competitive year.
With all that in mind, which film do YOU believe to be our Oscar frontrunner? I recently filled up my Gate Crashers ballot, with “Conclave” firmly placed at #1.