With TIFF, Venice and Telluride having wrapped up their editions, here’s a clear-eyed portrait of what’s shaping up to be a very interesting Best Picture race at the Oscars.
Before the fall fests, there were a few obvious contenders that had already been released. I’m thinking nominations for “Killers of the Flower Moon,” “Oppenheimer,” “Barbie,” “Past Lives,” and “Anatomy of A Fall.” That’s five films.
On the outside looking in are, still possibilities, “Across the Spider-Verse,” “The Zone of Interest,” and “Air.” I’m thinking maybe ‘Spider-Verse’ can squeeze in as a nominee, especially with the newly reformed Academy voting body. If it does get in, it’ll probably be as a #10.
It really looked like it was going to be “Killers of the Flower Moon” vs “Oppenheimer,” until Yorgos Lanthimos’ “Poor Things” crashed the race with an astounding showing at Venice, winning the Golden Lion and becoming the most critically hailed film of the fall fests. So, it’s now a three-way race.
Alexander Payne’s “The Holdovers” looks like a nominee, comfort food for the less adventurous voters, and there are plenty who will be hooked by Payne’s Christmas story. Ditto Cord Jefferson’s “American Fiction,” a sudden critical darling, that came out of nowhere, winning the TIFF People’s Choice Award.
That’s eight films I believe will be nominated. We’re left with two slots. Zeroing in are Bradley Cooper’s “Maestro,” Michael Mann’s “Ferrari,” Sofia Coppola’s “Priscilla,” Todd Haynes’ “May December,” Hayao Miyazaki’s “The Boy and the Heron,” George C. Wolfe’s “Rustin” and Andrew Haigh’s “All of Us Strangers.”
I’ll go ahead and say that Cooper’s Leonard Bernstein biopic seems to be tailor-made for a nomination. The reviews weren’t raves, but they were positive and it‘a Netflix’s biggest push of the season — they surely won’t get completely shut out?
Still left unscreened are Ridley Scott’s “Napoleon” and Blitz Bazawule’s “The Color Purple.” And so, here are my predictions as of 09.18.23 —
“Oppenheimer”
“Killers of the Flower Moon”
“Poor Things”
“Barbie”
“The Holdovers”
“Past Lives”
“Maestro”
“Anatomy of A Fall”
“American Fiction”
“Across the Spider-Verse”
If the movie is as rough as some in the industry seem to fear, that teaser may have been less of a marketing campaign and more of a public plea for somebody to finally take the damn thing.