It's still a $114 million opening, so you can’t really call what “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol.3” grossed this weekend “bad”.
However, compared to other openings in the MCU, ‘Guardians 3’ is being considered a disappointment by many, including IndieWire’s box-office guru Tom Brueggmann:
But the elephant in the room exists. Since 2013, Disney has opened their top summer season Marvel release on this date (and also, the last weekend in April twice): Without even having to adjust for inflation, the new “Guardians,” with $114 million for its U.S./Canada gross, ranks dead last — nine out of nine. The falloff from last year’s entry (“Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness”) is steep — down $73 million from that one. And “Strange” was a sequel to a lesser series release than “Guardians.” This should be sobering: “Vol. 2,” on this same weekend in 2017, grossed at current ticket prices around $170 million.
Word of mouth has been good for ‘Guardians 3,’ it even has an A CinemaScore and the IMDB rating is at 8.4, but it still underperformed when compared to past MCU blockbusters. We’ll see how it carries on next weekend.
James Gunn’s threequel opened in 4400+ theaters this weekend and that $115 million tally is just barely more than ‘Quantamania’ and $40 million less than ’Guardians 2.’ It might not even crack the $700 million worldwide mark by the end of its run.
The reported ‘Guardians 3’ budget is said to be around $250 million before a likely $100+ million or higher marketing expense. Brueggmann adds, “with all the attention in the comic book universe of how DC needs revamping, the reality is Marvel, though still performing better by default on most films, is falling off.”
Disney has cranked out a series of money losers, they badly needed this latest ‘Guardians’ movie to succeed. Looking at their coming lineup of movies, this trend will continue for a while. Let’s put it this way, If ‘Guardians’ is underperforming then I can imagine this fall’s “The Marvels” doing far worse.
There is a definite saturation going on with Marvel movies at the box-office but it’s not preventing 100+ million openings. Fans of these movies still very much exist but maybe less so than five years ago. There are cracks showing in the dam.
So, what’s next? As Marvel continues to lose investment from moviegoing audiences, and their prized mega-villain is, still, for now, being played by SDNY-hunted Jonathan Majors, there’s the overall sense that maybe we’re approaching the end of an era with these movies.