The snapshot below is from an L.A. times piece published this morning. Hundreds of Oscar voters were polled by the paper, asked what film they would vote for in the Best Picture and, unsurprisingly, the bottom line is that there is no frontrunner.
I could have told you that without polling AMPAS voters. Here’s an amusing quote from a voter who has seen “Top Gun: Maverick” a whopping thirteen times (and probably shouldn’t be an Oscar voter):
…watched Top gun 13 times and didn’t bother with other contenders
Madness. What we do know is that there are probably four de facto frontrunners right now. An unusual year at the movies means an unusual slate of contenders. Those four films are “Everything Everywhere All At Once,” “The Fabelmans,” “The Banshees of Inisherin” and “Top Gun: Maverick.”
I won’t even bother to predict which of these four has the best shot at winning. It’s impossible. Here’s what I posted on December 15th:
It’s obvious to say that “The Fabelmans” has lost a lot of Oscar momentum since its release. The reviews are still very good, but it didn’t connect with a wide audience. This doesn’t necessarily mean it can’t win, but many people are starting to wonder…
Don’t tell me it’s “Everything Everywhere All At Once.” That film’s hardcore fanbase keeps pushing the idea that it’ll win Best Picture, but I just can’t see it happening. The Academy rarely recognizes sci-fi and the film is polarizing enough to turn off older voters. If it were released just a decade ago, I don’t even think it would have been nominated, but a lot has changed since then.
How about “Top Gun: Maverick,” which would be another unusual winner as it’s a straight-up action blockbuster. It does have the honor of having “saved” the industry by proving that moviegoers are still willing to go to theaters. The reviews have also been great. It’s appearing on an innumerable amount of top 10 lists and it won the National Board of Review.
Then you have “The Banshees of Inisherin,” which has always been the dark horse of the race. It’s a film that is very well-liked, boasts a stellar cast and a cinematic mystery to its narrative that many of this year’s nominees lack. I would not discount its chances, especially with the preferential ballot coming into full effect again this year.
