Oscars: If Not ‘Fabelmans,’ What’s the Actual Best Picture Frontrunner?

It’s obvious to say that “The Fabelmans” has lost a lot of Oscar momentum since its release. The reviews are still very good, but it didn’t connect with a wide audience. This doesn’t necessarily mean it can’t win, but many people are starting to wonder…

Don’t tell me it’s “Everything Everywhere All At Once.” That film’s hardcore fanbase keeps pushing the idea that it’ll win Best Picture, but I just can’t see it happening. The Academy rarely recognizes sci-fi and the film is polarizing enough to turn off older voters. If it were released just a decade ago, I don’t even think it would have been nominated, but a lot has changed since then.

How about “Top Gun: Maverick,” which would be another unusual winner as it’s a straight-up action blockbuster. It does have the honor of having “saved” the industry by proving that moviegoers are still willing to go to theaters. The reviews have also been great. It’s appearing on an innumerable amount of top 10 lists and it won the National Board of Review.

Then you have “The Banshees of Inisherin,” which has always been the dark horse of the race. It’s a film that is very well-liked, boasts a stellar cast and a cinematic mystery to its narrative that many of this year’s nominees lack. I would not discount its chances, especially with the preferential ballot coming into full effect again this year.

Other than these four films, I don’t believe anything else stands a chance. “Women Talking” is going to be too divisive amongst voters, reviews for “Avatar: The Way of Water” just aren’t good enough, “TÁR” is the token artful critical darling that gets nominated/doesn’t win, and finally “Elvis” is well-loved but lacks the needed momentum to boost it up.

My gut is telling me that “Top Gun: Maverick” is the actual frontrunner that absolutely nobody dares acknowledge at the moment. I may be very wrong with this prediction, but I’m sticking with it for now. Whether you liked it or not, it was the movie event of the year.

The problem with a ‘Maverick’ win are stats. I hate the stats that come with Oscar punditry, but they inevitably can’t be ignored. As it stands, the film would be the first one to ever win Best Picture without a Director or Screenplay nod.