The 93rd Academy Awards will announce its nominations on Tuesday. What do you think will surprise?
There’s the Best Picture locks that we’ve been talking about: “The Fabelmans,” “Everything Everywhere All At Once,” “TÁR,” “The Banshees of Inisherin,” “Top Gun: Maverick,” “Elvis,” “Avatar: The Way of Water.” I’m betting those last three elusive spots will go to “The Whale,” “All Quiet on the Western Front,” and maybe “Women Talking.”
Best Director will have Todd Field, The Daniels, Martin McDonagh, Steven Spielberg and what about that final fifth slot? It’s usually reserved for a foreign nominee, but I think Joseph Kosinski or James Cameron will take it over Ruben Ostlund, Edward Berger, Park Chan-Wook, and SS Rajamouli.
Best Actor seems to be Colin Farrell, Brendan Fraser, Austin Butler, Bill Nighy and … Adam Sandler? Is that seriously going to happen? Paul Mescal doesn’t have enough support, in my opinion, and Hugh Jackman’s film struck out with many. Are we seriously going to wake up to “Academy Award Nominee, Adam Sandler”? It’s a weak category and I can’t see anybody else gunning for that fifth slot, maybe Tom Cruise?
The category I’m most fascinated by is Best Actress. You have Cate Blanchett, Michell Yeoh, and then three spots open for an assortment of female players. Viola Davis? Ana de Armas? Michelle Williams? Margot Robbie? The greatest overall pleasure I would get during Tuesday’s announcement would be if To Leslie’s Andrea Riseborough shows up. What a wonderful thing that would be. Not only is it a great performance, but it shape-shifts the entire way we see Oscar campaigning in the future.
Supporting Actress will be a battle between Kerry Condon, Angel Bassett, and Jamie Lee Curtis. Hong Chau has a good chance of getting in there. Will Stephanie Hsu get snubbed? That would result in a total meltdown on Film Twitter, especially if her white co-star got in and she didn’t. The others aiming for that fifth slot include Jessie Buckley, Dolly De Leon, and Janelle Monae.
Wouldn’t it be great to have 88-year-old Judd Hirsch nabbing a Best Supporting Actor nomination for his 8-minute ‘Fabelmans’ cameo? It's the highlight of that movie, save for David Lynch’s surprise role as John Ford. Right now, Ke Huy Quan and Brendan Gleeson seem like safe bets, but everybody else isn’t a sure thing. Is there enough love for Paul Dano? Can Barry Keoghan get in with his co-star Gleeson? I figure Eddie Redmayne has a good shot. Brian Tyree Henry might surprise as well.
So many questions, so little time. Last, but certainly not least, I’ll be paying close attention to the Best International Feature category, which has always been an unpredictable beast. I gather “All Quiet on the Western Front” is in. Ditto “Argentina 1985.” “Close” is #3. Then you have a battle for the final two spots between “EO.” “Bardo,” “The Quiet Girl,” “Holy Spider,” “Saint Omer,” “Corsage” and “Joyland.” Park Chan-wook’s “Decision to Leave” could get nominated, but the International branch has never really warmed up to his films.
My “No Guts, No Glory” predictions: Sandler, Riseborough and Hirsch.
Paul Greengrass’ "The Uprising," starring Andrew Garfield, opened to $3.2M from 2,068 theaters this weekend. Yikes. The budget hasn’t been disclosed, but is said to be in the $20-$30M range.