Oscars: Three Best Picture Contenders Have Already Been Released

Awards Daily’s Sasha Stone usually has a good sense of how the Oscar race is shaping up. In her latest piece, she believes we’ve already seen three major contenders in 2022: “Everything Everywhere All At Once,” “Top Gun: Maverick,” and “Elvis.”

I agree with the first two, but not entirely sold on “Elvis” yet. Don’t get me wrong, it definitely has a good shot, having already made $100 million domestically, but its odds will depend on just how strong the upcoming fall slate of films will be. If we’re in for another weak year like 2020 and 2021 then, yeah, sure, “Elvis” gets one of the ten BP slots.

At this point, “Everything Everywhere All At Once” is practically a lock — A24 would have to totally mess up its awards campaign for it to get snubbed. It topped our mid-year critics poll and has become what we like to call a “sensation.”

The case for “Top Gun: Maverick” resides in its (undeserving) critical acclaim and the fact that it’s now the 10th highest grossing movie of all time. In the post-pandemic era, it’s quite an unprecedented feat — Tom Cruise managed to bring back adults to movie theaters.

So far, no other release this year stands a chance. I’ve read some people saying, given the recent Roe V Wade decision, that maybe Audrey Diwan’s “Happening” has a shot. I would love nothing more than for Diwan’s brilliant film to get some Oscar love, but chances are pretty low that will happen. Maybe a late-year critics push could boost it up, but we’re just not there yet.

It’s very hard to decipher what fall films could be contenders. We know “Bardo” is Netflix’s top priority, so it should probably get in. “Women Talking” has some great buzz going for it. Ditto “Tar.” Then we have the late-year non-festival contenders like “Killers of the Flower Moon,” “The Fablemans,” and “Babylon.”

Safe for “Bardo,” Lukas Dhont’s Cannes-winner “Close” is another title that could get some Oscar traction. Dhont’s film could also win the big award at this coming September’s Toronto International Film Festival. I was mixed on it when it screened at Cannes, but this tear-jerking weepie could easily win over the Academy, that is if it gets seen by enough voters.

Maybe David Fincher’s “The Killer” could get some traction, but not even Netflix knows if that one’s coming out this year. They’re leaving it up to Fincher to decide.

Fine, I’ll budge. If I had a gun to my head and was told to guess the 10 leading contenders for Best Picture as of July 18th, 2022 …

Bardo, The Son, The Fablemans, Babylon, Killers of the Flower Moon, Women Talking, Tar, Everything Everywhere All At Once, Top Gun: Maverick, Close