Final Oscar Predictions

I’ll spare you the lengthy analysis and notes. If you’ve been reading this site then you know why I’m picking all of these.

I’m sticking with “CODA” winning Best Picture. As much as I love Jane Campion’s “The Power of the Dog,” it just hasn’t really struck a big enough chord within the industry to triumph over “CODA,” especially in the preferential ballot. Hell, I think “King Richard” has a better chance at winning BP than Campion’s film.

Jessica Chastain (“The Eyes of Tammy Faye”) wins Best Actress, but watch out for Penelope Cruz (“Parallel Mothers”). Nicole Kidman (“Being the Ricardos” just isn’t winning this one.

Will Smith (“King Richard”) is winning Best Actor. I can’t see Cumberbatch pulling off a win anymore. Smith is well-loved and so is his movie. Has he finally gotten vaccinated?

Troy Kotsur (“CODA”) will win Best Supporting Actor. “The Power of the Dog’s” downward spiral is real and it will sadly affect Kodi Smit-McPhee in this category as well.

Bet on Kirsten Dunst (“The Power of the Dog”) prevailing in the Best Supporting Actress category. For the life of me, I just can’t imagine people wanting to vote for Ariana Debose’s nothingburger of a performance. I may turn out to be very wrong on Sunday night, but I’m willing to stick with Dunst.

Jane Campion (“The Power of the Dog”) will be crowned Best Director, barely. I mean, who else can win in this category? Spielberg? Branagh?

I’m torn between Janusz Kaminski (“West Side Story”) and Greig Fraser (“Dune”) for Best Cinematography … Okay, fine, I’m going with Fraser. He won the ASC and that’s a good enough prognosticator to predict the Oscar winner.

Best Adapted Screenplay: “CODA.” This movie seems to be the train that never stops. It has absolutely taken advantage of this longer than usual awards season to snatch up all the momentum it needs to be a multiple Oscar winner.

Best Original Screenplay: “Don’t Look Up” I’m only picking this one because of its recent WGA win. The writers block of the academy doesn’t seem to have the greatest taste in film, so a McKay win aligns pretty well with that.

Best Animated Feature: “The Mitchells vs The Machines” will upset “Encanto.” Just watch.

Best Documentary: Jonas Rasmussen’s “Flee” will win over the found footage archives of “Summer of Soul.” The documentary branch has never really warmed up to archive-heavy documentaries, and I can’t really see them passing on Rasmussen’s movie.

International Feature Film: “Drive My Car” over “The Worst Person in the World.”