Usually IMDb is a good indicator as to whether or not a film has hit the sweet spot for, as Jeffrey Wells likes to refer to them, Joe and Jane Popcorn.
The Oscar voting body is filled with regular folks who don’t really pay much attention to film criticism and go by their own headwind. To find what films truly struck a chord with this demographic, you usually have to look at the audience scores on Rotten Tomatoes, Metacritic, CinemaScore and IMDb.
This year’s 10 Oscar nominees have been, more or less, widely seen by movie fans — hell, even “Drive My Car” is now available to watch on HBO Max. With that being said, these are the Best Picture nominees ranked in terms of their IMDb rating. You’ll notice that there is a drastic difference from the tastes of film critics:
CODA 8.1
Dune 8.1
Drive My Car 7.6
King Richard 7.5
Licorice Pizza 7.5
West Side Story 7.5
Belfast 7.3
Don’t Look Up 7.2
Nightmare Alley 7.1
The Power of the Dog 6.9
Shocked to see CODA so high, right? Well, you shouldn’t be. It’s been consistently racking up high audience scores since its release last summer. Its 93% audience score on Rotten Tomatoes is another indicator of the chord Sian Heder’s film has struck with mainstream audiences. This only reinforces the notion that a CODA Best Picture win is still very much possible.
Of course, the high “Dune” rating here shouldn’t signify much beyond the “fanboy” factor. “Dune” is the perfect film for a large portion of IMDb’s targeted voter demo, especially due to its sci-fi components. But it must be commended for how well-received it was, especially given that its source material was deemed unfilmable and quasi non-cinematic for decades (especially after David Lynch’s stinker of an adaptation in the early ‘80s).
One thing I did notice from the above IMDb ratings is how, with “Dune” and “CODA” excepted, not too many other BP nominees struck a major chord with the mainstream this year. Look at the IMDb ratings of the last 20 Best Picture winners; safe for 3 films, a high IMDb rating has been needed to win the top prize come Oscar night.
The Return of the King 9.0
Parasite 8.6
The Departed 8.5
Green Book 8.2
A Beautiful Mind 8.2
No Country For Old Men 8.2
Spotlight 8.1
12 Years A Slave 8.1
Million Dollar Baby 8.1
The King’s Speech 8.0
Slumdog Millionaire 8.0
The Artist 7.9
Crash 7.9
Birdman 7.8
Argo 7.7
Nomadland 7.4
Moonlight 7.4
The Shape of Water 7.3
Now are you starting to see how a CODA win could very possibly happen? In fact, if “The Power of the Dog” somehow ends up winning Best Picture, then it would end up being the lowest-rated winner in almost 60 years. In terms of BP winners, only 1963’s “Tom Jones” has had a lower IMDb rating (6.4). It’s this exact stat that has had me thinking twice about predicting “The Power of the Dog” for Best Picture.
In fact, I’m just not feeling it right now when it comes to Power of the Dog’s chances. Forget about the recent Sam Elliot rant (that might have actually boosted its chances), it’s more the fact that I’ve encountered too many people who just didn’t like Jane Campion’s film. High-profile filmmaker Rod Lurie, who personally knows MANY Oscar voters, told me recently that he knows many people in his Oscar bubble who have a vehement dislike for the film.
Then again, look at the three three lowest-rated Best Picture winners of the last 20 years (Nomadland,” “Moonlight” and “The Shape of Water”). All of them came out during the last five years, when a highly politicized Academy tried to virtue signal its way out of the #MeToo and #OscarsSoWhite movement. Of course, honouring “CODA” would no doubt count as a “virtue signaling” win. Socially and politically, “CODA” checks (almost) all the boxes needed to garner approval from the “woke” brigade.
Yes, I think I’m now predicting CODA to win not just the Producers Guild of America, but also the Best Picture Oscar come the evening of March 19th. Who would have thunk it? Its Oscar momentum really kickstarted when it won Ensemble at the SAG awards, and now, here we are, and it is the current de facto frontrunner (sorry, ‘Power of the Dog’).