Oscars: It’s Probably ‘The Fabelmans’ vs ‘The Banshees of Inisherin’ (And Maybe ‘Top Gun: Maverick’)

With Kohn/Thompson and, now, Variety’s Clayton Davis hopping onboard the “Banshees of Inisherin” frontrunner train, I can see a changing of the guard maybe occurring in the next few weeks.

Spielberg’s “The Fabelmans” has basically been the frontrunner since its TIFF world premiere. There was and still is no other movie that could overtake it. They said maybe “Babylon” or “Avatar: the Way of Water” but it’s not looking likely. It’s still ‘Fabelmans’ and … nothing else?

Then again, given its tepid box-office numbers, pundits are trying to find a new frontrunner, but they honestly can’t. That’s why “Banshees of Inisherin” is being flirted with as a possibility by Kohn/Thompson and Davis, because there is no other real possibility.

Don’t get me wrong, ‘Banshees’ is, excuse my Irish, a feckin’ brilliant film, right up there with “TÁR” for best of the year. It’s acerbic and tinged with melancholia, but it might be a tad too artfully vague for Oscar voters’ tastes. 

I’ll be more than happy if my assumption turns out to be false and McDonagh’s film wins the top prize, but if you’ve seen ‘Banshees’ then you know exactly what I’m talking about. It’s a bitter film about how bitter life is.

Then again, I can’t see any other film from this year’s crop of contenders giving ‘Fabelmans’ a run for its money quite like ‘Banshees.’ McDonagh’s film has passionate support, critical acclaim and is also a wonderful acting showcase.

Then you have the case for “Top Gun: Maverick.” It was the movie event of the year for most mainstream moviegoers, but it also garnered great reviews.

Kosinski’s film has grossed $1.48 billion globally, including $716 million domestically. Its nothing short of a phenomenon. The sensational success of “Top Gun: Maverick” might not have been possible any other year. It came at the absolute right time when moviegoers were, finally, feeling comfortable enough to go back to the movies.

“Top Gun: Maverick” is almost like a period piece, a movie that felt like it was set in a bygone era of America, one where wholesomeness was present and political polarization was non-existent. This kind of nostalgia could be too infectious for voters to resist.

With the Oscar campaigning Paramount has in store for this film, you’d be be a fool not to believe that ‘Maverick’ has a very legitimate shot at garnering a Best Picture nomination, and maybe even win the top prize come March 12, 2023.

The other potential nominees seem like afterthoughts: “Everything Everywhere All At Once” is too hip. “Women Talking” is divisive. “TÁR” is too artfully constructed to win over the token voter. So, yeah, we’re stuck with ‘Fabelmans’ and ‘Banshees’ in what is quickly becoming a painfully weak year for Oscar buzzed titles.