Even I, enormous detractor of “Everything Everywhere All At Once,” find it ridiculous that Variety’s Clayton Davis has Daniel Scheinert and Daniel Kwan at #10 on his Best Director predictions. There’s no way they are that low. Don’t get me wrong, I don’t believe they’ll win, but they’ll probably get nominated.
Davis’ fellow trades-man, THR’s Scott Feinberg, also neglects The Daniels from his top 5. What’s going on here?
Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans) is definitely in. That’s honestly the only lock I can think of right now. Maybe Todd Field (TÁR) as well. Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin) is there as #3, even though he was memorably snubbed in 2017 for “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri.”
With “Babylon” polarizing industry attendees, and Damien Chazelle definitely not in contention anymore, Spielberg might very well win his third Oscar for his most personal film. I mean, is there anyone else who can actually compete against him this year? I can’t think of anybody with the kind of narrative that he has going. ‘
Fabelmans’ might not end up winning Best Picture, but nobody has yet dared bet against Spielberg’s Directing Oscar this awards season.
It’s a very strange and messy thing this year’s Best Director race, mostly because we’re not really sure how AMPAS voters will react to films like Sarah Polley’s “Women Talking,” Daniels Scheinert and Daniel Kwan’s “Everything Everywhere All At Once,” Gina Prince-Bythehood “The Woman King” and Baz Luhrmann’s “Elvis.”
There’s also “Avatar: The Way of Water” which has, more or less, been a success for James Cameron, visionary that he is, but the film hasn’t necessarily gotten raves and if the Academy wants to honor him then they might want to wait it out until the third (and possibly final) chapter gets released.
On the non-US side, you have SS Rajamouli (RRR), Park Chan-wook (Decision to Leave), Ruben Ostlund (Triangle of Sadness), and Edward Berger (“All Quiet on the Western Front”). Park took the directing prize at Cannes, Berger’s WWII drama is killing it on Netflix, but it’s Rajamouli who has the best shot. He’s already won the NYFCC directing prize and the industry has fallen hard for him. So much so that the veteran Indian filmmaker is now getting offers to direct an American movie.
Then there’s the case for what Joseph Kosinski did in “Top Gun: Maverick.” A technical prowess that even the film’s detractors could appreciate a little. The kind of filmmaking in ‘Maverick’ is not easy to pull off, you need absolute concentration and skills beyond just camera set-ups and positioning. People also have nothing but good words to say about Kosinski, whose been around now for more than a dozen years. Don’t discount him.
So, it’s Spielberg. Right? However, given the speeding momentum that he currently has, I’m crazy enough to believe Rajamouli could shock us all and end up winning. Again, very unpredictable category and Spielberg having no competition is suspect at best.
With that recap, I currently have —
1) Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)
2) Todd Field (TAR)
3) Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin)
4) Daniel Scheinert and Daniel Kwan (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
5) James Cameron (Avatar: The Way of Water)
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6) SS Rajamouli (RRR)
7) Sarah Polley (Women Talking)
8) Joseph Kosinski (Top Gun: Maverick)
9) Gina Prince-Bythewood (The Woman King)
10) Baz Luhrmann (Elvis)