Oscars: SAG Slightly Realigned the Best Actor Race

The second phase of our Oscar predictions has begun. We already tackled the post-SAG Best Actress category earlier this week and now we’re going to dissect the male lead frontrunners.

As you may know, we have a few theories as to why Will Smith hasn’t been campaigning hard for his Best Actor trophy. We’ll reserve judgement on that, possibly, for a later piece, but Smith’s momentum loss is Benedict Cumberbatch’s gain and, in all honesty, the “Power of the Dog” actor has been relentlessly and successfully doing the media rounds these last few months.

So, it’s still Cumberbatch vs Smith, but you wouldn’t know it by the industry reactions Denzel Washington has been getting for his “The Tragedy of Macbeth” performance. I spoke to a prominent indie producer earlier in the week who told me Washington’s performance went over like gangbusters at a recent PGA screening. Washington has already won two Oscars, a third one for ‘Macbeth’ would not be that inconceivable, call him this category’s “dark horse.”

This leaves us with two open slots. The Screen Actors Guild was very keen in nominating Javier Bardem (Being the Ricardos) and Andrew Garfield (Tick, Tick .. Boom!). Garfield stands a good chance of being recognized by the academy — ever since his film premiered at the AFI Film Festival, the buzz hasn’t stopped.

However, a few major problems arise for Bardem: critics are not on-board with his performance. I still believe Peter Dinklage (Cyrano) will manage to sneak in there. Bardem would be on the outside looking in, especially due to the aforementioned critical pains and the unending controversy emanating from his ‘Ricardos’ casting.

I would love to see Red Rocket’s Simon Rex make it into the final five, and the narrative he’s got going is definitely an irresistible one (from MTV VJ to porn star to Oscar nominee), but his movie would have to be seen by enough voters. With A24 campaigning hard for him, you just never know.

Frontrunners

Will Smith (King Richard)
Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog) 
Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth) 
Peter Dinklage (Cyrano)
Andrew Garfield (Tick, Tick… Boom!) 

Possibilities

Javier Bardem (Being the Ricardos)
Simon Rex (Red Rocket)
Joaquin Phoenix (C’mon Cmon)
Leonardo DiCaprio (Don’t Look Up)
Nicolas Cage (Pig)
Bradley Cooper (Nightmare Alley)

Long Shots

Oscar Isaac (The Card Counter)
Cooper Hoffman (Licorice Pizza)
Jude Hill (Belfast)
Matt Damon (Stillwater)
Adam Driver (House of Gucci) 
Clifton Collins, Jr. (Jockey)