These past few weeks have felt like a total shutdown of the film industry. Movie releases have been delayed, the Golden Globes had no ceremony, Sundance went digital (again), the PGA/DGA delayed their awards… it’s depressing.
The amount of intel I would usually get from my contacts has also dried up due to this comatose state. I’m sure it’ll eventually pick up soon, but a fun little game is to be had in the meantime.
The Oscars started their expansion of Best Picture nominees back in 2009, right after the backlash that resulted in “The Dark Knight” being snubbed the year prior. On June 24, 2009, the AMPAS announced that the number of films to be nominated for Best Picture category would be increased from five to ten. At the same time, the voting system was switched to preferential voting. The rule was revised again in 2011 so that the number of films nominated was between five and ten; nominated films would have to earn either 5% of first-place rankings or 5% after an abbreviated variation of the single transferable vote nominating process.
Ever since then, we’ve had anywhere between 7-10 nominees in the category. This new rule change made for a much tougher time for pundits to predict every single nominated film.
So, what if this rule change had never happened? What would have been the final five films for every given year post-2009? While we’re at it, this year’s Best Picture race would be a little easier to predict. Right now we’re headed towards the six leading contenders being “The Power of the Dog,” “Belfast,” “West Side Story,” “King Richard” “Dune,” and “CODA.”
I’ve ardently followed the Oscars during the last three decades and would say that the below have, more or less, 90% accuracy rate in truthfulness (semi-kidding). After much deliberation, I came up with these theoretical “what ifs…”
2009
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Bastetds
Up in the Air
Avatar
Precious
2010
The King’s Speech
The Social Network
The Fighter
True Grit
Inception
2011
The Artist
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
The Descendants
The Help
2012
Argo
Zero Dark Thirty
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
2013
12 Years A Slave
Gravity
The Wolf of Wall Street
American Hustle
Dallas Buyers Club
2014
Birdman
Boyhood
The Imitation Game
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Theory of Everything
2015
Spotlight
The Big Short
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
The Martian
2016
Moonlight
La La Land
Manchester By the Sea
Hacksaw Ridge
Hidden Figures
2017
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri
Get Out
Lady Bird
Dunkirk
2018
Green Book
Roma
A Star is Born
Blackkklansman
The Favourite
2019
Parasite
1917
The Irishman
Once Upon A Time in Hollywood
Jojo Rabbit
2020
Nomadland
The Trial of the Chicago 7
The Father
Mank
Minari
The ‘Smile’ franchise has a new director. David Bruckner, who made “The Night House” and the 2022 “Hellraiser” reboot, has been hired to direct “Smile 3” for Paramount.