Before the fall festival season began, there were only two already-screened movies with a legitimate shot at a Best Picture nomination: “In the Heights,” and “CODA.” Now, with Telluride and Venice close to being done, we can add at least a half dozen titles titles alongside those two crowdpleasers.
“Power of the Dog,” “Belfast,” “Spencer” and “King Richard” are the ones who have benefited the most from their festival presence. Other possibilities include “The Lost Daughter,” “Dune,” and “C’mon C’mon.” You can scratch off “Last Night in Soho” which garnered a mixed response. I am hearing Joe Wright’s “Cyrano” is very niche, even though that hasn’t stopped a few pundits from proclaiming it an Oscar contender (don’t believe it).
About “Power of the Dog.” The reviews have been subdued, but very positive (does that make sense)? Originally, I had heard reactions, from Lido attendees, that Campion’s film was a slog to get through and then American critics started chiming in with their glowing raves. And, et voila, a Best Picture contender was born.
Are U.S. critics painstakingly trying to praise the film with a gun to their heads or is it really that good? Here’s a legendary female filmmaker who hasn’t made a feature in over 12 years. She’s also never topped 1993’s “The Piano,” still her unrequited masterpiece, and there’s obviously a real hunger to build a comeback narrative for her. The Telluride reaction was a little less glowing, but highly respectful of the film’s ambitions and scope. Toronto is next.
I’m still very hopeful about “Power of the Dog” turning out to be a great film, but something feels a little off here. It looks to be a slow, meditative and highly arthouse statement from Campion. The kind of film that doesn’t win Best Picture, but that will be adored by the Lincoln Centre crowd. I can’t wait to see it next week.
As for “Belfast,” it plays like a more accessible “Roma,” with a tinge of “Jojo Rabbit” added in for good measure. The twee is enormous in this thing. It will definitely be another Best Picture nominee where the low/middlebrow critics love it and the highbrow despise it with a passion.
A peculiar quote from Pete Hammond’s Telluride recap:
“The latter, scheduled for its “official” World Premiere in Toronto next week, is the name I hear most when I ask, ‘What is your favorite so far’ here. Kenneth Branagh’s beautiful and personal coming of age in Northern Ireland family drama seems certain to be generating lots of awards talk before and after its November 12 opening. Former Academy President Sid Ganis who, as usual, is soaking up the cinema in Telluride, told me he thinks it is one of the best films he has ever seen.”
So far, Best Picture looks a little something like this —
Contenders
Power of the Dog
Spencer
Belfast
King Richard
In the Heights
CODA
Possibilities
The Lost Daughter
Dune
C’mon C’mon
Passing
Flee
Longshots
The French Dispatch
Cyrano
The Hand of God
Respect
Stillwater
Still Left to Be Screened
The Tragedy of Macbeth
Soggy Bottom
Cry Macho
Nightmare Alley
Don’t Look Up
West Side Story
Tick, Tick … Boom
House of Gucci
The Last Duel
Being the Ricardos
I will now be headed to TIFF where possible world premiere breakouts like “The Humans,” “The Starling,” “The Forgiven,” “The Good House,” and “The Eyes of Tammy Faye” could change the scope of the race.