Oscars: Kodi Smit-McPhee is the Best Supporting Actor Frontrunner; Bradley Cooper and Jared Leto Close Behind

This is the sixth instalment in our ever-evolving series of 2022 Oscar predictions. We’ve already tackled the Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actress, and Best International Film categories.

Today, it’s Best Supporting Actor.

If this were any other year then maybe House of Gucci's Jared Leto wouldn’t get an Oscar nomination for Supporting Actor. But the category barely has legitimate contenders this year, a narrative hasn’t really shaped, and Leto’s outrageous performance deserves a nod.

And so, all hail Jared Leto as Paolo Gucci. This is the kind of gonzo performance that deserves both an Oscar and a Razzie. Wearing a fat suit, with a bald wig and THICK Italian accent, Leto is damn-near goofy in his delivery. “A triumph of mediocrity,” Al Pacino’s Rodolfo calls Paolo, and that he is. Whether Leto delivers a great or awful performance will be the stuff of debate for years to come, but he’s the high-wire act that this movie desperately needed more of.

Just give Leto a nomination for going full method and admitting that he snorted “lines of arrabbiata sauce” to prepare for the role.

However, it’s Kodi Smit-McPhee who turns out to be the Frontrunner in the category and Campion’s hidden ace in “The Power of the Dog.” Tall and lanky, his Peter sees mom suffering under the matriarchal dictatorship as, at the same time, he sees Phil (Benedict Cumberbatch) take him under his wings and try to teach him the cowboy ropes once taught to him by his deceased mentor Bronco Billy. It’s an immaculate and masterfully restrained performance

Bradley Cooper also stands a good chance of getting a Supporting Actor nod for what is essentially an 8-minute cameo that gives Leto a run for his money in terms of gonzo vibes. PTA will most certainly get a writing nod from the more adventurous writers block of the academy.

Meanwhile, JK Simmons is fantastic in “Being the Ricardos,”playing William Frawley, who portrayed Lucy and Desi’s neighbor Fred Mertz. It’s a film filled with wonderful performances, but Simmons’ command of the screen here, with the limited screentime that he has, is impressive. Kidman might be the standout, but Simmons is a close second behind.

Many are including Richard Jenkins’ performance in “The Humans,” but where’s the buzz for that one? A24 hasn’t really been promoting the film all that much and critical reaction has been mostly subdued, with positive but not wow-worthy reviews.

I also just can’t see both “Belfast” performers getting in. Ciaran Hinds has the chewier role in the film, whereas Jamie Dorman gets off mostly on his charming good looks and charisma, but not much else.

FRONTRUNNERS:

Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog)
Bradley Cooper (Licorice Pizza)
Jared Leto (House of Gucci)
JK Simmons (Being the Ricardos)
Ciaran Hinds (Belfast)

POTENTIALS:

Jamie Dorman (Belfast)
Jason Isaacs (Mass)
Jon Bernthal (King Richard)
Jared Leto (House of Gucci)
Jesse Plemons (The Power of the Dog)
Richard Jenkins (The Humans)
Ben Affleck (The Tender Bar)

NOT YET SEEN:

Willem Dafoe (Nightmare Alley)
David Alvarez (West Side Story)
Jonah Hill (Don’t Look Up)
Corey Hawkins (The Tragedy of Macbeth)