Box-Office: ‘Toy Story 4' on Pace to Only Make Half of What ‘Toy Story 3' Grossed Worldwide

I will not be talking about the average “Annabelle Comes Home” opening ($20.3M). Because, frankly, I don’t really care about the movie enough. I’ve already mentioned “Yesterday” exceeding expectations with a #3 debut this weekend, although the $17M intake is a little less than the $20M I was projecting on Friday. So, no, let’s talk about “Toy Story 4” instead.

The film opened below some of the crazier expectations last weekend with a $120.9M 3-day intake. The projections were all pushing it at close to $150M, alas, it fell $20M short of the projections. If you’ve read this site, you would know that I thought “Toy Story 3” should have been the appropriate end to the story, nobody really demanded a fourth film since, well, the ending of the third chapter was so damn perfect and complete. It is understandable that some moviegoers would just not be as open to a fourth film.

The big question now is will “Toy Story 4” make back any lost income through strong word of mouth? As of now it's unclear. It is headed towards a $300M domestic intake, not too shabby at all, but that will fall well short of the $400M “Toy Story 3” accumulated back in 2010. Ditto its current $500M worldwide tally, which will likely fall short of the $1B “Toy Story 3” made. The film’s budget has been reported at around $200M, so Disney does end up making a profit, but this is another sign this summer of moviegoers rebelling against sequels.

1. Toy Story 4 – $58M ($237M Overall)
2. Annabelle Comes Home – $20.3M
3. Yesterday – $17M
4. Aladdin – $9.3M ($306 million)
5. The Secret Life of Pets 2 – $7M
6. Men in Black: International – $6.5M
7. Avengers: Endgame – $5.5M ($841M)
8. Child’s Play – $4.3M
9. Rocketman – $3.87M
10. John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum – $3.18 ($161M)