Peter Farrelly's "Green Book" has won the Producers Guild of America award, all but sealing its fate as the Best Picture frontrunner for the upcoming 91st Academy Awards. Does that mean it's going to win the whole shebang? Of course not. But it does give us some kind of idea as to who should be favored come Oscar night, especially since this has been such an unpredictable awards season. At some point, during these last few months, more than 5 films have been touted as the frontrunner for the prize. I'm not kidding, "A Star is Born," "Black Panther," "Roma" and "BlackKklansman" have all had their turns. However, if you're an Oscar pundit, the PGA is the most legitimate precursor to adhere to, if you follow the odds of course.
Of course, the PGA has not completely matched Oscar in the past (giving "La La Land" its prize the year "Moonlight" won the Oscar ditto "The Big Short" winning the year "Spotlight" took the other) but it has a decent 80% ratio in predicting the correct winner. That's something. It also helps that the thousands of producers that vote for the prize are also, almost of them, Oscar voters.
And so, fact of the matter is this, "Green Book" is an audience crowd pleaser like no other. All three times I saw it the audience applauded during the credits, that almost never happens. It has an 8.3 IMDB score, by far the highest of 2018 contenders and a much-coveted A CinemaScore. It has struck a chord with Joe and Jane popcorn. The fact that it'll spread into an additional 1000 theatres next week could make the case for it in a louder and clearer fashion. The notion that it is surprising to see it win should not be taken seriously, the film has struck a chord with people, I knew it would be a contender when I saw it at TIFF, it's just that many sought its destruction.
The P.C. backlash it has gotten has not worked, for now. It'll be interesting to see if the smear campaign, and that it is, will intensify, will we see more controversy appear out of the thin blue air for "Green Book"? I tackled this subject last month in the aptly titled "Is A Rival Studio Behind the “Green Book" Smear Campaign?“
Farrelly's film came out of last September's Toronto International Film Festival as the unadorned winner of the fest. However, the aforementioned P.C. shunning of "Green Book" has been one that has been deeply felt in the industry, everybody has an opinion, but it seems like a backlash against the backlash has emerged, let us not forget that the Golden Globes also crowned it just last weekend. The ball is now in its detractors' court, what will be their next move? Or have they given up on trying to smear anything and everything connected to this movie?
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