IndieWire’s Eric Kohn and Anne Thompson believe “These Oscar Categories Are the Hardest to Predict.” Posted on 02.11.23 —
“Everything Everywhere All at Once” continues to be a Best Picture frontrunner and “All Quiet on the Western Front” seems to have Best International Feature Film locked up. Ke Huy Quan can rest easy about his future Best Supporting Actor trophy and Angela Bassett is in a good position for Best Supporting Actress. Sarah Polley is on track to win Best Adapted Screenplay for “Women Talking.”
Save for “All Quiet on the Western Front” winning International Film, none of the other categories they mention are predictable.
Are The Daniels seriously winning Best Director over Todd Field and Steven Spielberg? What a cinematic travesty that would be.
I guess Ke Huy Quan has it in the bag for his EEAO performance. Unless, there’s a lot more passion than we think for Brendan Gleeson’s performance in ‘Banshees.’ The reason why Quan is such a strong frontrunner has to do with his narrative being very strong. Who doesn’t want Short Round to win?
Sorry, but I still don’t buy Angela Bassett being a lock in Supporting Actress for, of all movies, “Wakanda Forever.” Kerry Condon (“The Banshees of Inisherin”) deserves it and could easily pull off the upset come Oscar night.
As for Best Picture, are we seriously to believe that “Everything Everywhere All At Once” is the frontrunner? Is the 10-nominee field that weak? I’m dreaming of a “TÁR” or ‘Banshees’ upset, but maybe “The Fabelmans” could take it.
Why am I so adamantly defiant when it comes to EEAO’s BP frontrunner status? It’s not just because I didn’t care for the movie, but it’s more the overall feeling that it’ll be very hard to convince the Academy’s largest demographic (male, white, over 50) to vote for this film.
Thompson and Kohn then focus their attention on the hotly competitive Best Actor race — which is basically down to Colin Farrell, Brendan Fraser and Austin Butler. I’m still leaning towards Butler, but can easily see one or the other winning.
In the Best Actress category, there’s Cate Blanchett (TÁR) whose performance is probably seen by a majority of the voting branch as the best of the five nominees.
However, Blanchett doesn’t have as juicy a narrative as EEAO’s Michelle Yeoh. In a year where the Academy has yet again been condemned as racist, Yeoh becoming the first Asian lead to win an Oscar will be too hard to resist for many. With that being said, wouldn’t it be hilarious if Andrea Riseborough won? I’m pulling hard for this to occur, and, I bet, many of the voters are as well. She’s the absolute dark horse in this category.
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